Major Cycle Analysis
Note: Research data compiled from blockchain.info, coinmetrics and unchainedcapital.
As we mentioned in our most recent edition (June) the Bitcoin price has decoupled from the underlying fundamental valuation according to the most relevant metrics. On chain metrics have been implying that Bitcoin is overbought throughout most of this rally. The NVTS ratio for example is seeing its highest levels in 18 months and has finally crossed the overbought level in sync with the most recent sell-off.
It is not uncommon for on-chain metrics and fundamentals to be completely ignored during these types of parabolic moves. The Bitcoin market is still made up majoritively by non-institutional investors and while capital from institutions and professional investors is flowing in gradually, we are currently trading in a very new and unsophisticated market.
This is one of the key reasons we are able to profit so reliably. Emotions run high, there are no trading bots with formulas sophisticated enough to truly know the true price of Bitcoin and the markets are irrational, driven in the most part by fear and greed.
The most recent price balloon to $14,000 followed by a sell off with volumes the largest we have seen since the November 2018 capitulation is one such example.
We will keep you, our traders, informed of any and all portfolio and position adjustments in our trading academy as we always do. I expect the volatility to be substantial, meaning any trading advice given here is likely to be outdated by the time you are reading this.
For this reason this newsletter will be shorter than usual with the majority of our focus now taken away from the fundamentals and onto the recent price action.
Who Is Selling?
The active portion of the total Bitcoin supply (coins that have moved within the last 3 months) has been increasing while all other bands remain flat or moving in the inverse direction (holders continue to hold).
The new sellers are mostly made up of traders and individuals that have been holding for 3-6 months. Some traders are locking profits, others are turning their outlook from bullish to bearish after the swift rise in price and others are selling out to buy more on the dips and increase their overall profits.
This type of trading environment is the fundamental basis for a market that makes higher lows and higher highs. As the sellers are only selling out in an attempt to buy back in at a lower price in the near future.
Long term holders appear to be unphased by the sharp increase in price with their eyes set on a much bigger goal than 100-200% profits. This is a strong fundamental indicator that we are at the beginning of a new long term market cycle. Combine this with the fact that 21.5% of coins have not moved at all in the last 5 years you begin to see that long term holders truly aren’t joining the ranks of sellers even after such a sharp increase in price.
Exchange Flows and Altcoins
We have been monitoring exchange inflows and outflows meticulously. We saw record outflows during April and May, which makes sense considering the majority of buyers during that period were long term investors looking to move their Bitcoin off exchange and into cold storage.
Recently we have noticed an extremely large increase in the inflows to Binance. Generally, a move of this proportion would suggest a sell off. I believe that the reason is twofold. Yes, there were funds moved to Binance to be sold during the most recent parabolic extension. However, it leaves the possibility that individuals may be thinking about moving Bitcoin into alts.
Since Bitcoin exploded in April, alts have significantly underperformed. One could theorise that as the blow off top from the most recent Bitcoin move settles, Bitcoin may trade sideways and create the opportunity for alt season to begin.
Bitcoin dominance has gone from around 50% to a whopping 63% at the end of June and we are still riding that Bitcoin wave right now, however we will be watching any advances in alts closely if Bitcoin appears to stabilise and positive sentiment returns to the altcoin market.
Safe trading - The Team at Boss Crypto
Taken from the Boss Crypto VIP research channel at https://bosscrypto.co/