- Spot bitcoin ETF fully approved.
- The halving will be anti-climatic.
- The beginning of 'block-size wars 2.0' will begin in earnest, this time over bitcoin's censorship resistance around the dynamics of mining. It will initiate a serious bifurcation of bitcoiners that will cast doubt and confusion in the public markets; "leave it alone and let free markets play out" vs. "we must stop the graffiti or else bitcoin will ultimately fail". New mining pools will pop up all over with aggressive marketing on how they promote decentralized processes (block template selections, non-custodial payouts, stratum v2, etc...). This is going to be a hot area in 2024.
- Do Kwon & Alex Mashinksy will stand trial and jury. No one will care much, as the damage has been already done.
- NOSTR adoption will continue but be far slower that hoped for. It's bleeding edge, and still has a big learning curve and public education to overcome. It'll get there, but needs way more time.
- No meaningful legislation that will hurt bitcoin will be passed in 2024. Lame duck congress, nothing will happen.
- Trump will win 2024 US presidential election. This will result in headwinds on bitcoin for the next several years as he is a USD fiat maxi. (Not picking sides here, this is just what I think will play out).
- BitVM will grab some headlines on super interesting use cases, but fail to materialize due to technical complexity. This too needs more time, but will get there.
- One more country will declare bitcoin legal tender. An island nation, with abundant natural resources and little debt to the IMF.
- Saudi Arabia will start making meaningful transition away from selling oil in USD. This will raise a lot of serious questions and become a hot political topic for the 2024 presidential election.
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