90% of tokens listed on major CEXs fell below their listing price within 1 year. The odds are heavily against buying new tokens.

Research from CoinGecko showed that across the top 12 CEXs, only about 32% of newly listed tokens show positive price action in the first 30 days. It gets worse from here. By the 12-month mark, fewer than 10% of listed tokens on most top exchanges are still above their initial listing price.

The interesting outlier is Upbit. It had the best immediate post-listing performance by far, with 67% of new listings in the green after 30 days. However, Upbit listings also declined the fastest. By the 300 - 329 day mark, EVERY single newly listed token on Upbit had gone underwater.

The only exchange that broke the pattern was Coinbase, where listed tokens caught a second wind after the six-month mark.

Make of that what you will. If you're buying tokens on listing day expecting to hold for a year, the data says the odds are heavily against you.

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/spot-centralized-exchanges-report-2026