A big misconception about ETF approval and the SEC

I've seen this a lot in here recently. "Guys, the government does not want there to be a BTC ETF, so why does everyone seem to think one is coming?"

Yes, the SEC has to give its stamp of approval for a BTC ETF to go live. No, this is not the same thing as an ETF only getting approved if the government actively wants one to exist.

These firms have a right to want to sell this product. It is entirely on the government to provide a legal justification for one NOT being allowed, or one must be allowed.

So far, they have basically used bureaucracy to make it go as slowly as possible. And they're pretty much out of paperwork and skeptical reviews at this point.

If the government denies one without a legal argument to back it up, they will lose the following lawsuit about it. Sure, could they go through the motions and waste another year or two in that lawsuit? Yes. But that doesn't seem to be the way they're leaning.

Why would their opinion be changing from strongly against to more apathetic? The government isn't a single mind. These people in the top of finance and financial regulation are a revolving door. Gensler wants a high paying job at a top financial firm after this, and so on. The big money has decided it now wants BTC to be a thing. So the government now isn't as against it. It's fairly straightforward. But again, at this point, this is kind of besides the point.

BIG OL' CAVEAT:

I AM NOT AN EXPERT IN THIS. Experts in the chat, please chime in with detail, and/or with correcting me if I'm wrong.