A few signs crypto winter is just getting started.

It’s been a rough couple months for stocks, crypto, and other investments. After a few green days many investors are wondering if we could be seeing the bottom of the market right now. I would argue that we are just getting started.

Currently the federal reserve continues to hike interest rates and offload their balance sheet aggressively. I think many people believe inflation is peaking but I’m not completely sold on that idea. Oil reserves are being depleted to keep diesel prices low leading into mid term elections and this will eventually lead to higher prices in coming months if we don’t increase production (which will negatively impact CPI down the line).

The housing market is softening all over the country and the majority of most people’s net worth is on their home equity.

We are starting to see lay offs which I think will likely get worse before it gets better.

And the most important point which I believe is not priced in? Student loans coming due for Americans in January. Everyone talks about how “this time is different” and how the American consumer is so strong. Set loan forgiveness aside, as soon Americans start paying student loans again in January we will immediately see household savings dry up. Consumer credit will sky rocket higher than it already has, and I believe crypto and equites will then hit all time lows. Add in the uncertainty of the geopolitical climate and possible food and/or gas shortages around this time in January.

I do not feel that we have seen “despair” on the market cycle graphic. The recent green days have been a head fake and unfortunately I think that the market will still get worse before it gets better.