A New Take on Bitcoin Halving Cycles

One thing every crypto OG is aware of is the Bitcoin halving cycle. Typically we see charts and percentage gains calculated from the time of halving. This method anchors Bitcoin price action to dates, rather than price action. In the below chart, we look at the Bitcoin halving cycles, but calculated as of the low price of that cycle. So in the data below, each cycle actually begins BEFORE the halving date.

This method allows us to view Bitcoin's price action THROUGH the halving cycle.

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SOURCE: CoinCodex (price as of \"close\")

The chart below shows each halving cycle.

The x-axis represents how many days past the low.

The y-axis represents the % growth from that cycle low.

The dot marker for each line represents the halving date for that cycle.

So using our current 2024 cycle as an example: Day 0 represents November 22, 2022 when Bitcoin crashed to ~$15,780 after FTX collapsed. We are currently 455 days past that low, and Bitcoin's price today is 228% of that low.

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SOURCE: CoinCodex (daily price as of \"close\")

So what can we see from this chart?

1. It takes over 1,000 days for each cycle to reach the new All-Time High (ATH)
2. Each new ATH has become an increasingly lower % of the low
3. Our current 2024 cycle is tracking well to previous cycles

This data would suggest that we are ~500 days from our next ATH, with the ATH coming in closer to 8-10x of the low ($120-160k).

That being said, obviously this is all bullshit. It's really impossible to observe trends with only a few data points, especially considering the massive economic variables not shown in the chart (10 year bull market, near zero interest rates, Covid, spot ETFs, etc). It is tough not to be excited though when we take a step back and realize Bitcoin is sitting at $52k today, a few months before the halving, with institutional money just beginning to pour in.

TL;DR Bitcoin to the moon