If you have experience in the mining industry and if I said something wrong here, please post it in the comments, I'll gladly make corrections.
I've been exploring the idea of working in the bitcoin mining industry. Only playing with the idea now, so I've been talking to a few people in the industry, but I'm not an "expert" so, I'll be taking what they say and what I've heard from podcasts to stick the idea to you guys:
Presently, if you mine bitcoin and your electricity cost is 0.09 cents per kilowatt hour or less, you are profitable. The lower you can go with electricity prices, the higher the profits. That much is common sense. However, there's a few things to go over with a deeper look.
- In case you guys didn't know, the more hash-power that enters the bitcoin mining space, the higher the mining difficulty, and thus the lower the profits.
- Therefore with point 1 in mind above, when the price of bitcoin goes low enough, some miners are forced to shut off their mining devices or -in the worst case scenarios- sell their mining devices to other miners with cheaper electricity.
- When the last halving kicked in in May 2020, we didn't see the price of bitcoin surpass it's previous all time high of 20k (from 2017) until mid December 2020.
With the three points above in mind, if there is no significant price movement, then some miners will be forced to shut down. By some estimates, as much as 30% of miners in some regions will have to shut down. Half as much bitcoin would be getting produced, and therefore, the profits are basically cut in half if btc were to stay at the price it is now.
However, Michael Saylor spoke about this at length a few years ago on a podcast, basically stating that the most energy-efficient operations will survive and any new electricity forms that are created or any "stranded" energy forms that were created will simply go back to the grid and communities that need the energy.
TL;DR - There's a chance that some mining operations will shut down, don't take it as FUD.
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