So another bank run happened, and this one went mostly under the radar in most media. This is the 4th bank to fail in the USA since the start of 2023. And all failed due to a bank run.
- Silvergate Bank March 8, 2023
- Silicon Valley Bank March 10, 2023
- Signature Bank March 12, 2023
- First Republic Bank May 1, 2023
Looking at Forbes Failed Banks In The U.S. — An Analysis By Year, Size And More – Forbes Advisor
Bank collapses were similarly uncommon in the early 2000s. From 2001 to 2007, the U.S. saw an average of just 3.57 bank failures per year.
So a handful going under isn't completely unheard of on normal years. Like some years like 2005 and 2006 there was no banks that closed.
What is interesting is based on Bank Runs: Why They Happen & Mitigation Measures (corporatefinanceinstitute.com)
With global banking regulations, bank failures are not the typical cause of bank runs.
Looking into it many banks failed during the years 2001-2007 due to factors such as undercapitalization, liquidity, safety and soundness, and fraud.
Meaning while the amount that failed isn't unheard of, it happening due to bank runs is.
And what is more unheard of is how the Federal gov is allowing major banks to flat out and openly break laws.
Regulators seize First Republic Bank, sell assets to JPMorgan | Reuters
They break this law Market Share Caps – Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ilsr.org)
In 1994, Congress adopted a policy that bars a bank from buying another bank if the combined entity would hold more than 10 percent of the country’s deposits.
And it should be noted they are making a profit from this deal. Part of the deal is they aren't taking on any of the debt.
So this time things are a bit different, and it is expected this is just the start of things. What make this bank interesting is unlike most of the others is this one dealt more with wealthy people, and less on VC and starts ups. This had more to do with wealthy people defaulting on their loans.
A major money maker for the bank was mortgages. 62.4% of loans had maturities of 15 years, so these were long term stuff. It is expected a major factor is remote work. Basically, as people don't need to show up to the office anymore people will move away from areas that are expensive and go to more desire areas, and office space couldn't lost a lot of companies due to this and companies going under. Plus it is expected inflation is a major factor, as the defaulted properties didn't value enough to cover the problems.
If this is true, then it's likely this is just the start. Like Pacques Bancorp is looking like it has a major bank withdrawals as it's a 16.9% hit. Not enough to cause major problems in itself as the structure is different. My point is bank runs are highly likely to happen a few times this year beyond what we have and there is signs of it. Keep in mind the structure of banks is different from bank to bank.
Now what does this have to do with crypto?
Basically, you need to look at as people lose trust in their bank, it COULD help us in crypto out as people will look at putting their value in something they can quickly liquidate if need and easily take with them. Like they could pick land or whatever. But the problem with that is you can't quickly liquidate land or take it with you if you have to flee. Gold isn't easy to liquidate also. Stocks are, and this likely will help some stocks also. But unlike stocks capital flight is easier and stocks are limited by time of day and even day of the week on when you can liquidate it, where crypto you can trade it whenever if you have internet.
(it should be noted that it sounds like the people using the bank as a bank will be screwed. In reality, they will have mostly what they have. But it will be switched over to another bank. And keep in mind FDIC only insures up to a given amount. IDK if the complete amount moves over, but I think it does in this one case. But like I said prior, there is risk because this does break the law due to who is buying the failed bank.)
TLDR
Keep an eye on these banks and if more bank runs happen. I think it will be likely people will start to flee the $ since there is some risk in holding the dollar due to bank runs.
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