Anyone else thinking it’s TOO early for a BTC bottom?

I just can’t believe everyone calling for a bottom is correct. I know no one really knows, but even without over analysing it seems improbable.

We’re only about 230days since the ATH, if this was a true bear market we wouldn’t expect to bottom this early.

The next halving is in April 2024. The bottom normally happens a while before then, on average a few weeks over 500 days. This would mean the bottom would be in Q4 2022.

If it is the bottom, that means we crab sideways with some relief and dump again but never break this level. Does that seem feasible for a volatile market. We’ve already tested 20,500 a few times and 20,800 multiple times. Eventually I expect it’ll break.

This is unprecedented times for BTC. Recession, inflation, Russia Ukraine situation, supply chains, energy crisis etc... People don’t want to invest yet, which means retail is out of the picture for the foreseeable future.

I’m not saying this isn’t the bottom, or close, but I just don’t think it will be. We have touched the 200WMA, which is a perfectly logical level to bid at for BTC, I mean why wouldn’t you, but I believe alts will deffo bleed more as time goes on, with rallies and dumps along the way. Let me know what you all think. I think we’re at the 6k level in 2018 right now, you know how that ended.