At some point in the next 24 hours we will pass the “1 year to halving” point.

This is based on the “average block generation time” of 10 mins.

Now, unless you are brand new to this monkey business, you’ll know the halving has historically triggered a bull run. If you’ll indulge me, I’d like to suggest why this one will be “similar but different”.

(I’m more than open to alternative views on this)

Tl;Dr there’ll be a bull run but it’ll start sooner, have an unexpected dip and not go as high as you think.

1. Let’s start with sentiment. This plays a big role in all investments (Keynes called it “animal spirits”) but non quite like crypto.
   

Outside of other factors surrounding the halving, the “expectation” of a bull run will be self fulfilling. I think we’ll see it start from here and fiat to BTC flow will increase well before April 2024.

Conclusion: The run will start early.

1. The consequences of the early run.

As a result of people “getting in before the halving” the first couple of months after it halves will be less than dramatic. The prodding Bitcoin with a stick “Do something” meme will be liberally deployed.

Conclusion: An unexpected post halving drop.

1. Eventually the deflationary effect of the halving will kick in.

This’ll drive the parabolic rise we’ve all come to know and love. But it won’t be the 20x we’ve seen in the past.

We’ve exhausted our supply of risk takers by this point and now we’re recruiting money from the more cautious. It’ll go big and we’ll see ATHs all over the place. But BTC will be lucky to see 150k (but that’ll do me fine).

Good luck and may the road rise with you!