Bear market strategy for first timers

There seems to be a lot of consensus that 12-14k is going to be the bottom for Bitcoin this cycle. To me, this means without a doubt it won't be the bottom. The way I see it, there really are only two sensible outcomes from here:

1. We've weathered the worst of the storm, there is a lot of fear, but the FTX contagion is running out of gas and the market is going to stabilize where it is to form a bottom
2. The worst is yet to come, further collapses of big players will lead to cascading effects that will push the price downwards well below "technical targets" of 12k -- possibly as low as 6k

So what? What to actually do in this situation?

Well, the first thing to do is take stock of your situation. If you can't tolerate outcome 2) you need to rebalance your portfolio. De-risk by selling off some of your riskier coins (i.e pretty much anything that isn't Bitcoin).

Next, mentally grapple with the possibility of 2). Imagine the loss like it already happened to you. Try to gauge whether you could actually handle this if it happens. If you don't think you could, go back to the previous step and de-risk more. I can't stress this enough, if/when the final capitulation happens you have to steel yourself for it because despite all your diamond handed thoughts, you are going to want to sell. It sounds completely nuts, but I promise it will happen. It's called capitulation for a reason.

Once you've done that, assess whatever money you put aside from either de-risking above, a pre-existing DCA plan, disposable income, or whatever. Whatever amount it is, make sure it's something you can afford to lose. Remember the possibility of outcome 2). Plan to start averaging into the market from now for the next 4-8 weeks. The exact timing and amount can vary, just discipline your buys so you don't throw it all into the first big drop, this is the big rookie mistake. For example, put in 20% every 10% drop -- this is a plan that expects the price to drop no further than 50% from here (not unreasonable). Or just put 15% every week, until you run out. Whatever works for you.

If 1) plays out, then you'll miss the bottom, but overall this likely means you'll have lost only a few % as you averaged in to mitigate your risk -- this is very worth it, since risk levels are off the charts right now. If 2) plays out, then hopefully your strategy averages down far enough that your overall portfolio loss is tolerable. Any crypto portfolio that is -20% or higher in the depths of a bear market is a massive win in my opinion.

Finally, assuming you haven't invested more than you can afford to lose, you'll come out of the other side of this bear market in great shape. This is something that has worked for me in the past, and I plan to do something similar again this time.

Why should you listen to me? You shouldn't. I'm some random person on reddit. Why are you even reading this? Come up with your own strategy.