After the most recent rally, bitcoin is down 65% from the all-time high in November, 253 days in. 2013 and 2017 cycles found a bottom at 84.82% and 83.47% with both lasting close to around 400 days. Bitcoin’s latest rally is not out of the ordinary for the typical bear market rally move. Even a move to $30,000 is possible
The other way to look at rallies is to see how high prices move off of new lows. Using daily close prices and not absolute bottom wick prices, the 2013-2015 cycle saw rally gains of 84.12% at its highest while 2017-2018 saw 67.93%. In the current cycle we’ve seen a 35.54% rally move at its highest while the latest move, now around 26%.
Are economic and liquidity conditions getting better to justify a reversal? Has there been a fundamental change or catalyst for bitcoin to suggest it won’t follow broader market moves?
It’s possible that bitcoin has already front-runned that move and will likely be the asset to bottom first, anyway. The more likely case is that bitcoin will at least revisit previous lows and likely make a new one.
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