 | September has arrived — historically one of the worst months for Bitcoin. And right after September, we immediately enter historically better months: late autumn and the entirety of winter. However, the focus shouldn't be on this, but rather on the fact that Bitcoin has entered a zone of strong statistical deviation. This refers to the number of consecutive months with opposing trends. Green and red months have alternated almost throughout 2024: Cryptocurrency is a trending asset class (unlike range-bound assets like Forex, which tend to move sideways). If we see a green September, the continuation of this alternation with a red October would be an unprecedented event. The probability of two IDENTICAL months in a row increases geometrically. A rising September could set October up for growth. The reverse is also true. With a red September, the chance of a red October increases. PS: September is highly likely to set the direction for autumn and winter. [link] [comments] |
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