Bitcoin halving: psychology vs reality

With Pantera (and others) suggesting a $150k Bitcoin after the halving next year, I did some back of the envelope calculation:

Miner rewards will be halved by 3.125 BTC. 6 Blocks are mined per hour or 144 a day or 52,560 a year. That means supply will be cut by 3.125*52,560=164,250 BTC per year.

This is pretty much in the ballpark of the supply reduction by the MSTR purchases over the last 3 years, which clearly did not 6x the price.

It is all those reports with price predictions around the halving that create an expectation of "easy money" for mainstream investors. Which could work - especially if other positive news accelerate. But it could also simply be that nothing happens after the next halving bc fundamentally not that much does actually change. Just wanted to share as some ppl here make it sound like there is a guaranteed price jump coming after the next halving.