Bitcoin started the week with a bang, but the real question is, what is driving the move, and is it sustainable?
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price pushed above the $31,000 mark on Oct. 23, notching a near four-month high last seen when BTC’s price traded at $31,800.
The fresh upside push comes as analysts and investors express their excitement over new developments that could point to the impending launch of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
So two things caught my eye from the latest iShares (Blackrock) S-1 amendment:
— Scott Johnsson (@SGJohnsson) October 23, 2023
- They've obtained a CUSIP in prep for a launch
- They may be looking to seed with cash this month (which is earlier than I would've thought, but may be nothing) pic.twitter.com/lMDaKxiIbB
Referring to Johnsson’s post, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas cautioned his followers not to get overly excited and explained that the amended iShares (Blackrock) S-1 document shows BlackRock could be preparing to seed its ETF and that “disclosing it shows another step in the process of launching.”
Balchunas clarified the process, saying:
“Background: Seeding an ETF is when initial funding is provided (typically) by a bank or broker dealer used to purchase a few creation units (in this case bitcoin) in exchange for ETF shares which can be traded in open market on Day One.”
Related: Bitcoin ETF to trigger massive demand from institutions, EY says
Bitcoin spot volumes and institutional investor activity make waves
From the vantage point of market analysis, Bitcoin’s swift move through the $30,000 zone appears driven by spot volume.
Data from CoinMetrics also shows an uptick in weekly crypto asset inflows by institutional investors into digital asset investment products.
CoinShares analyst David Butterfill said:
“Digital asset investment products saw inflows for the 4th consecutive week totalling US$66m, bringing the last 4 week run of inflows to US$179m. Following recent price appreciation, total Assets under Management (AuM) have risen by 15% since their lows in early September, now totalling nearly US$33bn, the highest point since mid-August.”
Volumes for CME futures also doubled, a reflection that spot and futures traders have fresh bullish sentiment about Bitcoin’s recent price action.
The uptick in CME volumes and spot volume, as opposed to a surge in Binance futures open interest, suggests that this week’s move could be more than just the standard leverage-loving retail trader attempting to open margin longs and shorts on the recent price move.
From the technical analysis side, Bitcoin’s 20-day moving average has slightly pushed above the 200-day moving average, which is a positive move, but many traders will be waiting for the supposed all-important golden cross where the 50-day moving average moves above the 200-day moving average.
In terms of Bitcoin’s market structure over a longer timeframe, successive daily closes above the $31,700 level would be notable, as daily or weekly higher high candles above this level puts the price above a key pivot point and enters territory not seen since May 2022.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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