Bitcoin Returns Following Halving 2012-2020

Very excited to say after a couple of false starts in trying to post in this group (not having 500 karma, realising I had 500 karma but not the required 500 comment karma), I`ve now finally made my way up and cracked the magic number to be able to post and contribute to this group.

I began buying crypto in Dec 21 (yes I know terrible timing) after watching for a long time from the side lines and waiting for the bubble to burst!

I`ve therefore never gone through and experienced a Bitcoin halving event.

I`ve often heard it stated, that the 6 months following halving is when the bull run happens, and the % returns after halving have diminished with each halving event.

I was interested in this when I saw the below monthly return chart for Bitcoin and noticed that after the halving on 9th July 2016 the returns weren't as strong as I would have expected.

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Bitcoin Monthly % Returns 2013-Present

This got me looking into things and I came up with the below.

Different sources list slightly different prices for Bitcoin on a given day, depending on when and how they record the price, open, close, the daily average etc.

I`ve used some rounding which didn`t substantially change the calculations.

The snapshot I`ve chosen to use is the 6 months after halving, different periods may well yield different results.

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28th Nov 2012 halving

price at halving $12, price 6 months after halving $129, average monthly price increase (not compounded) 55%, percentage increase from halving to 6 months later 975%

9th July 2016 halving

price at halving $650, price 6 months after halving $994, average monthly price increase (not compounded) 8.25%, percentage increase from halving to 6 months later 53%

11th May 2020 halving

price at halving $8605, price 6 months after halving $15690, average monthly price increase (not compounded) 14% percentage increase from halving to 6 months later 82%

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As you can see the 2020 halving produced higher return than the 2016 halving which surprised me.

I plan to investigate things further, the pandemic was definitely a black swan event as well as the ultra low interest rate environment.

For those that went through it, what do you think drove the previous halving events and how do you see the 2024 halving looking?