I have made a map of BTC behavior over the years represented into a circle (a modification of X user @therationalroot). My contribution is to add 2 models to show that BTC value in dollars follows a precise path. One model is a simple power law (price=10^-17*days^5.82). This is the orange spiral. Notice how it goes through the middle of the BTC dollar value (black wiggly line). The second model is a more complete model that is made of 3 components 1) power law as above 2) sinusoidal waves with a period of 4 years (shifted down by -1 standard deviation from trend), amplitude of wave is 2 standard deviations from trend. 3) exponential decay to replicate the peaks becoming smaller each cycle. The areas where the 2 models intersect show where the price of BTC is overbought (red, bulls) or oversold (green, bears). The red spiral tracks well most of the bear market and it touches all the cycle peaks. It is amazing that such simple mathematical models can capture most of BTC behavior in time. BTC is a beautiful math machine. [link] [comments] |
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