Bull Cycle Climax Ahead? BTC Dominance Topping Out, ETH at a Macro Low, and Altseason Starting April 2025

I think we’re setting up for the final act of this bull cycle, a critical phase where the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market undergo a significant shift. This setup is characterized by the ETH/BTC ratio appearing to approach a bottom, signaling that Ethereum might be undervalued relative to Bitcoin, a pattern often seen before major altcoin rallies. Simultaneously, Bitcoin dominance is approaching a topping point, currently hovering around 60-61% as of March 9, 2025, which mirrors the high levels seen in late 2020. Meanwhile, Ethereum is starting to find a macro low, with its price potentially stabilizing around $4,000-$4,100, a level where over $5 billion in short liquidations are reportedly sitting. These liquidations could act as a catalyst, triggering a sharp upward move if market sentiment shifts. This scenario is assuming we follow a similar pattern to the last cycle, where late-stage bull run dynamics paved the way for an altcoin surge.

Looking back, Bitcoin dominance peaked around December 28, 2020 (or very close to it, at approximately 70%), a pivotal moment in the previous cycle. This peak marked the beginning of a gradual decline, as capital began to rotate away from Bitcoin and into alternative cryptocurrencies. This subsequent decline was the starting point for the 2021 altseason, which gained steam in January as Ethereum and other altcoins started to outperform Bitcoin. The altseason reached its peak in the spring, particularly around May 2021, when smaller-cap coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu saw explosive gains. December 28, 2020, was a turning point where Bitcoin’s grip on market dominance loosened, setting the stage for altcoins to shine brightly in the months that followed. This historical precedent suggests that a similar dominance peak now could herald another significant altcoin rally.

This would theoretically be the setup we are witnessing now—the start of an altseason approaching, a phenomenon typically observed only in the later stages of a crypto bull run. The current market conditions, with Bitcoin dominance nearing its zenith and Ethereum poised for a potential reversal, echo the late 2020 transition. An altseason doesn’t emerge until Bitcoin’s initial post-halving surge matures, allowing speculative capital to flow into altcoins. Based on this pattern, the altseason likely begins between April and June 2025, as Bitcoin dominance is expected to drop from its current 60-61% to perhaps 50-55%, a decline of 5-10%, which historically triggers altcoin momentum. During this period, Ethereum could rally from its macro low of $4,000-$4,100 toward $5,000 or higher, driven by the liquidation squeeze and renewed investor interest. Other altcoins, tracked via TOTAL3 (the market cap excluding BTC and ETH), might see similar gains, potentially doubling from current levels as seen in past cycles.

The BTC top, following this altseason, is projected to occur between August and November 2025, with a lean toward October-November due to summer’s low liquidity. This timeline fits the 4-year cycle’s 17-18 month peak window from the April 19, 2024, halving, aligning with the 18-month lag observed in 2021. Summer months (June-August) often bring reduced trading volume and liquidity, as traders and institutions take vacations, leading to consolidation rather than a parabolic move. This could delay the final BTC surge until fall, when market participation typically rebounds. Historically, Bitcoin has continued to rise alongside altcoins for a few months after the altseason peak (e.g., May 2021 to November 2021), suggesting that after an altcoin-driven summer, BTC could hit $105,000-$120,000 in a final blow-off top. This projection assumes a 30-50% increase from its current $80,529 (March 9, 2025), consistent with past cycle tops.

The interplay between these factors—dominance peaking, ETH/BTC bottoming, and the macro low—sets the stage for a dramatic finale to this bull cycle. If we follow the 2020-2021 pattern, the next few months will be crucial, with April-June 2025 marking the altseason’s onset and October-November 2025 potentially delivering the cycle’s climax. Monitoring dominance trends, ETH’s breakout, and liquidity shifts will be key to confirming this trajectory. This late-stage setup underscores the cyclical nature of crypto markets, where Bitcoin’s dominance gives way to altcoin dominance before the ultimate peak.

I would like to hear everyones opinions and thoughts on this.