Bull Market or Bear Market

Don't Get Stressed let’s try and deduce from some simple analysis.

These last few days have been crazy in the crypto market, no doubt, but if we all just take a step back and look at the big picture we have seen extraordinary growth in the crypto space this last year as a whole.

Despite all of the recent FOMOing into puff coins like Doge and Shib. Hype and frenzy can pump the price quick, and dump even harder because it's hard to sustain without having any of the fundamentals to back it up.

I know with all the noise and FUD around BTC, particularly as a result of the indiscretions of the, self-proclaimed "Imperator of Mars," Elon Musk, it's hard to remain calm and unaffected by the hysteria. (For those who don't know what "Imperator" means, here you go: an absolute or supreme ruler; (in Imperial Rome) emperor. Who in their right mind, gives themselves that title without being irredeemably narcissistic and self-absorbed. Give me a break.)

Anyways, despite all of this, we must not forget where we are at this cycle, and must definitely not act impetuously when deciding to buy, or sell (particularly right now).

Here are some Facts to give some insights into the Larger Picture that might help to reframe the current bearish sentiment in the market.

1. The First Bitcoin Cycle lasted 41 weeks and had a return of roughly 93,000%
2. The Second Bitcoin Cycle lasted 107 weeks and had a return or roughly 63,000%
3. The Third Bitcoin Cycle lasted 152 weeks and had a return of roughly 13,000%
4. During the course of the First Bitcoin Cycle the price corrected over 50%, to test the Bull Market Support Band (20 Week SMA & 20 Week EMA), 2 times
5. During the course of the Second Bitcoin Cycle the price corrected over 50% to test the Bull Market Support Band, 3 times, and broke through 1 time before breaking back above it
6. During the course of the Third Bitcoin Cycle the price corrected on average around 40% to test the Bull Market Support Band, 7 times

What can we deduce from all of this information:

1. Their are significant gains each cycle, but each with diminishing returns
2. The duration of each cycle increases exponentially
3. The price made multiple test of the Bull Market Support Band during the course of the cycle, correcting around roughly 40-50% for each test

Now that we understand the way the cycles behaved prior, where are we this cycle?

Are we in a Bull run or a correction or have we fallen into a Bear Market, time will tell!

However given the rate of extension each cycle, I think a conservative estimate for the length of this cycle would be 175-200 weeks long, putting a peak up somewhere around March or April 2022.

There is of course always the possibility for the cycle to be shorter or longer, but if history is any indication, it will not be shorter than the prior cycle of 152 weeks.

All of this is to say, Bitcoin is not done, in fact far from it!

Take advantage of this reduced price action!

DCA and HODL

Good Luck everyone