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Ethereum - What does the Market say about the project? Deep dive into the most important Data investors should know [SERIOUS]

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Ethereum - What does the Market say about the project? Deep dive into the most important Data investors should know [SERIOUS]

Ethereum has been discussed heavily recently. While there haven't been any drama or big news lately, the price decline still draws a lot of attention.

In this post I'll give you all the market data an investor might find interesting in a neutral perspective.

ETH / BTC

probably a chart you have seen in the last days since it's been one of the more popular topics - ETH value is on a decline against BTC value

https://preview.redd.it/3wv4h64569tb1.png?2554&format=png&auto=webp&s=7235ddf549bc5bfaa0975faa493f78664af25ce6

a summary of highs & lows since the bullrun:

https://preview.redd.it/ptrmljn989tb1.png?2548&format=png&auto=webp&s=38d3ea161a8f76f21f71f55186fa7c9fddd243c1

Volume Dominance % of BTC & ETH

https://preview.redd.it/4ncfswyhi9tb1.png?1771&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa7ca9eb061a7472bd372728c9d46ee7a967001f

While the volume spiked heavily prior & after the merge, it is on a decline since then.

Where is it going? Based on markets towards other alt coins:

https://preview.redd.it/5vbq0t6q89tb1.png?1626&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3d4c80c5571599cb9d900f295dd09c156305cb8

Open interest dominance - how dominant is ETH trading over the crypto market:

vs BTC:

https://preview.redd.it/0tzaukux89tb1.png?1481&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbf3a584f00837653d3961e0436878e7209cc742

vs the crypto market excluding BTC:

https://preview.redd.it/fpmp7vz399tb1.png?1480&format=png&auto=webp&s=17ef64dcd09acf03c297943b03628345760f27a8

How is it being traded over the last year?

https://preview.redd.it/68r6k31f99tb1.png?2500&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f150b08a8418701ede5a1b0638fd1ede52c4fc9

ETH open interest suprisingly has only really declined and remained low since this year August 2023 with a current OI low close to the level after the FTX collapse. Liquidations have also declined heavily, which is most likely caused by the lower volume but also deleveraging.

On chain Data - who is in profit?

https://preview.redd.it/dvyq41c0a9tb1.png?289&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ebc38bf5160b3cc92e317d695e727c28028e0d8

At the current price of $1577, ~49% of addresses have an average buy price above the current price. ~4% are "at the money" close to the current price, while 48% are underwater.

Direct Volume & price data:

https://preview.redd.it/iqyqp1kla9tb1.png?2498&format=png&auto=webp&s=bfa127581d59a3cc3af7b9e2c3da9de5ab5e9968

While volume is on a decline since March, that is mostly the case for the majority of crypto assets out there. There's nothing outstanding visible here with Ethereum, nor bad or good. Just the normal few spikes during heavy sell offs but also pumps.

Current future contracts with the highest open interest:

https://preview.redd.it/m0y18s7kb9tb1.png?893&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8adbbe044493e07c79cdef34a3aa8559626a871

Liquidation Data:

before dump:

- Shorts : Teal ( 50x leverage ), Blue ( 25x leverage ) Light green ( 100x leverage )- Longs : ( Red ( 50x leverage ), pink ( 25x leverage ) Orange ( 100x leverage )

https://preview.redd.it/2uks4lt6c9tb1.png?951&format=png&auto=webp&s=502c444d39c62346fde48243845350596251f7f4

After:

https://preview.redd.it/9te4xos0f9tb1.png?588&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa7790356a72e3f3ff4a4051708f49ac8c7f7109

What moved the sell off today:

https://preview.redd.it/aer2pqqff9tb1.png?2487&format=png&auto=webp&s=e85aa3d363c12f8b9a36e9ace48b4c1d44ba63a9

While prices declined steadily, ETH was heavily supported during the sell offs. However, after the first initial sell off there were a large amount of high levereaged positions opened which resulted into an higher open interest than before the sell off. A short plunge wiped out an equal large amount of positions within minutes fueling the volatility mostly to the downside.

ETH Quarterly Futures Data:

https://preview.redd.it/a5nf5ba8g9tb1.png?2486&format=png&auto=webp&s=63352a270b981005e2eb7aa399850dc32f7a3e45

CONCLUSION:

This Data is entirely based on Charts and how markets supply & demand move the price of the asset. Based entirely on the Data there is no significant visible anomaly that ETH "has fallen off" or "nobody cares anymore". Most of the Data shown above is just every day of the current illiquid conditions in crypto.

While volume decline can be seen as negative and decline of interest, it is also a major bear market bottom sign for assets in the global market. The lower the demand & liquidity, the higher you can expect volatility will arrive with potential further flushes but also spikes to the upside on good news.

At the end of the day Ethereum, same as all crypto, remain a highly speculative high volatile asset. Tomorrow, ETH could be below $1500 based on bad news but also above $1650 on some incredible bullish news. While the fundamental value of it's Tech might be on a decline, it remains short term noise and could change any month again. However the charts do not show significant obvious signs that ETH enthusiast are giving up the asset.

submitted by /u/TarkovRedditor
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