Ethereum's Shanghai Upgrade scheduled is set to free 17M ETH($29B USD) or 14% of supply, but it gets alot more interesting for price-watchers

Firstly, though this amount is theoretically free for withdrawals, this is not the amount will hit the circulating supply(and hence affect the price. While the upgrade enables withdrawals, only 7 validators can currently make a full withdrawal per epoch. An epoch is measured as 6.4 minutes(for Ethereum) which means "only" 1,575 validators can withdraw per day. The ng.

Firstly, though this amount is theoretically free for withdrawals, this is not the amount will hit the circulating supply(and hence affect the price. While the upgrade enables withdrawals, only 7 validators can currenctly make a full withdrawal per epoch. An epoch is measured as 6.4 minutes(for Ethereum) which means "only" 1,575 validators can withdraw per day. The average staker has a balance of 34ETH, which amounts to 53, 550 ETH on average able to be withdrawn per day. Per CoinMarketCap, the daily trading volume of ETH is ~4.318M ETH(as of time of writing) so the total amount that can be withdrawn per day represents 1.2% of the daily volume. Additionally, as the number of stakers falls, the amount able to be withdrawn also falls. In theory, if all stakers wanted to fully withdraw it would take over a year.

How Validator Amount Affect Withdrawals

However, partial withdrawals, ie. withdrawals of amounts >32ETH, are supposed to be executed immediately. There is however some expectation of a queue to form, that make take a day or two to empty. Here is where we are working off estimates with some give or take. Since average staker has a balance of 34ETH, such that they may withdraw 2 ETH(34-32). At the worst case, this gives and estimate of 1.066M ETH total. For partial withdrawals, the maximum capacity is 16 withdrawals per slot (12 seconds) meaning it would take 4.6 days assuming everyone fully withdrew the total pool of 1.066M ETH. However, each day only 5.3%(~232,000 ETH) of daily volume could be withdrawn. Remember, this is the absolute worst case, that at least roughly 22% of average stakers want to partially withdraw.

TLDR: So what we end up with is at WORST, If the maximum 0.3% of average stakers attempt to fully withdraw and attempt to sell everything there is a change of -1.2% theoretically. If 22% of average stakers attempt to partially withdraw that ALL ETH and these stakers attempt to sell everything we end up with a price change of -5.3% theoretically.

Bear in mind that there are a fair bit of estimations and assumptions and this does not account for the fact that traders will almost certainly attempt to preemptively trade by heavily buying or selling in anticipation of the price change, in addition to potential hype trading behind the Upgrade's fundamentals itself. But frankly a theoretical price change between -1.2% to - 5.3% change isn't all that shocking for crypto, so not too bad I'd say.