![Everyone was wrong - Ignore the Influencers and become more profitable [SERIOUS]](https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/XIi_NSOWx4IjqDf505NuofROWUcpjIqiPKnclgmUUXA.jpg "Everyone was wrong - Ignore the Influencers and become more profitable [SERIOUS]") | With this post I want to point out that once again, nobody knew shit about fuck. Nobody was able to predict anything BTC / Crypto related over the last years, everyone was wrong and you should never listen to these guys ever again. Let's go back in time and look at a few obvious & biggest fails from popular youtuber or "investment influencer" THE 100K CALLEspecially looking back now that people praised Kevin O' Leary and taking his advice serious, including using FTX, makes this look even worse. This also includes BitBoy that predicted BTC to run within a few weeks to 100-150k in 2021 while it was already close to the top: And many more.Now in my honest opinion most of these guys are clowns and should never be taken serious. I've never paid attention to youtube analysis in the first place due the straight up way how markets work and how it's def a liquidity / retail trapping content, however for the sake of this post I did go through them. And the analysis is just cringe and incredible bad. Talking about comparing single candles from 2013 to 2021 up to analyzing a daily candle how "bears have tried to push it lower but they failed so now it goes up" Has anything changed?Nope, in 2022, everyone was also wrong. 2023? same. Everyone. keeps. being. wrong. Support ressistance long term TA bs based on past performance on an illiquid high volatile high speculative asset during the worst macro economic time it has ever experienced is so laughable, if you tell someone serious working at wallstreet he'll laugh at you and ask how to short it. 224 days of everyone being wrong in 2022 that bought thinking they timed the bottom: Remember Luna ? The celsius / creditor wash out and major institutions exiting? Everyone was bullish during these weeks that "once luna is done selling" or "once they are done selling they created the bottom!!" Every week people said "this is it! Last chance to buy below 30k!" and every single week it continued to fall until it hit a hard bottom around 15-16k. Then we had a small relief of less selling pressure due macro economics looking slightly more in control ( CPI pumps & dump ) however there was nothing significant happening. Even if you hit the perfect bottom and sold at the absolute top you would be most likely count to a very little 0.1%-1% of people that cashed out at that level. Everyone was still bullish that it'll "easily take back the 30k level" And even a perfect play would've gotten you +43% in 90 days which is great ROI but we all know almost impossible to pull off. Yet again this was the narrative everyone was praising. Buy the dip, it'll recover easily to 30k. Looking back at it now this was probably the biggest retail trap of the entire bear market especially when it comes to ETH. The pre-halving rally fueled by shorts covering & heavily over shorted market, attracted again lots of self proclaimed analyst predicting "ETH to only go up in the ETH/BTC ratio" and "ETH becoming the new thing" or even FLIP BTC. Some might have hibernated during that time which is understadable consider the market condition, but "THE FLIPPENING" was actually really popular and people were betting their chips on it to at least an extent of ETH heavily recovering. And reality? It sold off on that FOMO rally, sold off on merge, evaporated all gains in 2 days after FTX collapsed. But nobody could predict FTXSome might think about this right now and I totally agree! If you haven't spend a lot of time researching the minimum information you can find about the exchange, their books and their system, it was difficult to think of a full collapse in a week like that. However, that doesn't change the fact that everyone was still wrong. You see, if you analyze an asset you should ALWAYS think of the worst cases possible as it's a crucial part of risk management.Reality is, if you manage funds for a larger investment firm that want's to buy an asset overtime for a long time, they want to know the absolute lowest potential level and the time it'll take to reach it and recover from it. Based on that risk management they make decisions how they value the asset at given time compared to others and based on THAT they'll decide how much funds will flow into the risk sector. Crypto Community however feels like they'll either DCA at any moment no matter the outlook, or they catch falling knives. Everyone was bearish at 15-17kAnd everyone missed out on the january ETF & bear market rally. The sad reality of everyone praying for Binance downfall, for BTC to drop below 15k and Doomers calling 10k or lower on BTC. While the chance was there, it is safe to say that majority still missed out buying at these levels convinced of the echo chamber that it'll continue to go down. While Binance did indeed face regulatory issues early/mid 2023, BTC was already far above 15k in fact, it was playing around 30-32k. "Being too early is still wrong" is a classic rule in the financial market. Even if you were right about binance, you were too early and missed out completely on a +100% rally of BTC. Or even worse, your shorts got completely evaporated. ETF & Halving narrative vs SEC, Mt Gox, FTX & macro economy These were more the major driver of 2023 and once again, everyone was completely wrong.Reality is, completely based on numbers & chart, nothing of this mattered. BTC has been now traded in the same range for over 210 Days. ETF news have been heavily discussed even during FTX. ETF news were not "a new thing" in 2023. Although the Blackrock ETF was news, the filings for a spot ETF were speculated heavily already with Grayscale. While odds increased in 2023, it was still a major reason for the rally in early january. The AI hype in the stock market cotinued to fuel the trend up to 30k+ which was heavily rejected over a longer period of time. Most likely simple supply & demand - miners playing it safe, investors playing it safe that are in profit accumulating over 2 years of sub 30k prices and more. And once again, everyone is wrong again. People speculated easy 40k with the ETF, easy 20k with MT Gox, ez sub 20k with Binance fall out and nothing mattered.Reality is, nobody predicted a 2023 sideway movement. Conclusion:If you follow any self proclaimed "Crypto Analyst", YouTuber or Shillfluencer, you should check out their older predictions because most likely they were all wrong. While you might watch them purely for entertainment purpose, it's safe to say that many don't. Following any of them and using the information for financial decisions is one of the reasons why the majority of retail investors are still sitting on heavy losses although BTC did a +100% from the FTX lows. The reality :Reality is macro economic wise everything sucks for Bitcoin and it won't change until maybe 2025 or later. Yes we have a halving, yes the Spot ETF approval is very close. But those are all drivers nothing compareable to what we've had in 2021 of almost unlimited liquidity ( insert JPow printer here ), inflation that suited a hedge like BTC well and huge retail hype. Now we have a strong dollar with Feds doing a great job. I don't wanna praise them for all the shady fuck ups they did in the past, but reality is, they got inflation ( so far ) under control without breaking anything nor hurting the economy. Current target remains 2% inflation with "rates high for longer" suggesting a 525-550 level until at least mid 2024. What can you do : Join the way smart money invest. Accumulate when you have dry powder and when it's cheap and focus only on BTC. If you feel risky and want to lean towards a more gamble asset for higher returns, buy some alts. But remember, all the "good news" have been bullish for BTC, not alts. BTC Spot ETF, BTC Halving, BTC not being a security, BTC blackrock interest & shilling. Lots of investors have put their chips on alt coins getting love as well causing them to buy every rally in 2023 which will ultimately lead to higher selling pressure the way up. The time will come for alt coins as always but there's no reason to FOMO into them on every single green candle compared to playing it safe, focusing IRL & getting your hands on more drypowder and ignoring all the noise ( especially from all the self proclaimed analyst shilling "the current thing" ) Thanks for the read [link] [comments] |
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