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Examining/analyzing past halving events and making a prediction

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Examining/analyzing past halving events and making a prediction

As you all know, the halving event happens every four years and can change the value of bitcoin.

In 2012, when the first bitcoin halving happened, bitcoin was still new. People were just starting to pay attention to it, but big banks and government rules were not sure about it yet. The price of bitcoin went up and down, but not by a lot. It was around this time that Coinbase started. There was also a big scam that happened, so other things likely effected the price more than the halving.

By 2016, more people and businesses started accepting bitcoin, and it became more popular. This was also a year when a lot of things were happening around the world, like the Brexit vote and changes in Chinese money, that made more people interested in bitcoin. New York made some new rules that helped make things clearer for bitcoin businesses. This year, there was also a big focus on making bitcoin work better and faster through the Lightning Network.

In 2020, even more big companies started to use bitcoin, and it became a way for them to protect their money against big changes in the world economy, like the COVID-19 pandemic. The price of bitcoin went up, and more rules were made in Europe to help manage digital money businesses better. This year also saw new technology to make bitcoin more private and efficient.

Overall, bitcoin halvings didn't have as large affect on the price immediately, but as you can see on the chart, the price went up shortly after. I believe similar will happen this halving, a relatively steady price going into it and a slow but steady rise to 90K or so by the end of the year.

So stack those satoshis and be sure to avoid CEX (I've been burned, plus its a good idea to avoid stricter governance and fees). Use a direct on/off ramp like Moonpay or to buy without having to go through a CEX. Coinbase and Robinhood are terrible for fees folks. Okay, end of my crusade - let's wait and see what happens!

submitted by /u/ChodeMcGee
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