Think about what just happened.
Iran ceasefire. Morgan Stanley launches a Bitcoin ETF. $471M pours into BTC ETFs in a single day. Price hits $72.7K. $280M in shorts get liquidated.
And sentiment got WORSE. Not better. Worse.
Fear & Greed was 17 before the rally. Today it's 14. The market saw the most bullish news combination in months and responded by getting more afraid.
I've been watching this index for a long time. A rally on major positive catalysts that DROPS sentiment instead of lifting it tells you one thing: the people with real money don't believe this move. The $280M in liquidations means the pump was fueled by short squeezes, not by new buyers who want to hold.
Halving anniversary is April 20. CPI drops tomorrow. The next two weeks will tell us if this was the start of something or just noise.
But that Fear & Greed number should bother everyone who went long yesterday.
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