The latest poll results, released on Wednesday before Fed Chair Jerome Powell was due to appear before the Senate Banking Committee as part of his twice-yearly monetary policy testimony to Congress, show momentum is still behind the U.S. central bank doing more, not less, despite rising recession concerns and a steep sell-off in financial markets. Bond yields are up sharply and major Wall Street equity indexes are already trading in a bear market, defined as 20% down from their peak.
A strong majority expect the central bank to hike its policy rate by another 50 basis points in September, with opinion more split on whether it will hike by 25 or 50 basis points in November. A majority expect the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting.
That would take the fed funds rate to a range of 3.25%-3.50% by the end of this year, 75 basis points higher than thought in a poll published just two weeks ago.
Powell last week signaled that a pause in the current tightening cycle would only be possible after a meaningful decline in inflation, which currently looks to be a more distant prospect than thought just a few weeks ago.
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