Consider that for every previous halving event, the price was down 30% to 40% from the previous ATH. This time, due to ETFs and new institutional money coming in, the halving event almost a year ago was near the previous ATH.
The Bitcoin cycle is about the designed scarcity and the inevitable liquidity crunch if demand remains relatively constant. This cycle we got a huge amount of new money and got a mini speculative bubble within this first year, and now a mini crash. But looking at past cycles 11 months in, being up roughly 20% is in line with previous performance.
Ultimately, I think the general prediction of 180k by September-October is not out of the question. We are just now coming back in line with the traditional cycle (that is more muted each round) and the early 109k ATH was an anomaly.
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