From the 10 years I've been in this market, one thing I'm beginning to learn is not to rely on and not be too quick to jump on "this time it will be different". People have insanely short memory in this market, and keep repeating the same mistakes each cy

\it sometimes feels*

It's not just the cycles that are like clock work, I noticed people's behavior and the market psychology has been very repetitive.

Each cycle we see the same behavior.

We see people repeat all the same mistakes again. Even fall for the same scams. Buy the same problem projects, on the same selling points.

We even recently saw people FOMO back into a chain known for its outages, convinced they had fixed all their issues, and it won't happen anymore, it would be different now. And then a few weeks later, it was down again.

We recently saw the same old bear market cycle.

And then the same bull cycle starting again, and people jump back. They FOMO back into Bitcoin like it's this brand new hot invention that just dropped in. Like they just discovered fire.

Then several months later, it crashes, and the mood goes from discovering fire, to thinking the whole thing is dead, or maybe even thinking it was all a Ponzi.

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Here's why market behavior is so repetitive and cyclical in crypto:

First off, it's partly the side effect of the excessive volatility.

Traditional markets already have a lot of emotions, and are sometimes devoid of logic or reason. And you can already obverse a lot of repeating market psychology.

But crank up volatility to the max, and you have the emotions of the market cranked up on crack, and much of the rationality out the window, and even memory.

You get a market where brain and memory is switched off, and emotions and mood swings run high. A perfect recipe to see people repeating all the same mistakes, and doing it like a hamster on a wheel.

Second, it's one of the first asset in history with tokenomics rooted in an actual algorithm, and a cyclical algorithm, where the starting point and core of the economics comes from mining rewards in a pre-programmed system that isn't based on people's whims or people's behavior, and where there isn't a central person or central company that can decide on that function. It's pre-determined by a set algorithm.

But despite being pre-determined, don't count on the future to be all priced in. It's a volatile market, with a very short memory, that runs on mood swings.

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Conclusion:

This market has combined something very rooted in cycles at its core, in a volatile environment where people react more on mood swings, than use reason, much less their memory.

This is creating a perfect storm to turn this market into a scenario for the Groundhog Day writers, where each cycle we have people just waking up like it's a first cycle, and repeating most of the same things.

But don't worry, just like in the movie, there are small factors that will make it increasingly likely to get out of this loop.

I won't go into a deep explanation, and give you straight up the correct answer. Once Ethereum or another crytpo gains enough of the share of the market, and Bitcoin isn't too far ahead of the next big coin and no longer as dominant against alts, and it's closer to 50-50 with the next big coin, then we'll start seeing the cycles fade.

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