Global wealth distribution & growth: Why crypto market cap at 100 trillion is possible and not just hopium.

In 2010, Credit Suisse reported Global Wealth to be $200 trillion.

In 2020, the same report claims global wealth now sits at $418 trillion.

Source: https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/global-wealth-report.html

Of that 418 trillion,

$89 trillion in stocks

$200 trillion in real estate

$100 trillion in bonds

$13 trillion in gold

+ other assets

+ an insignificant sum in crypto

- Global wealth is projected to grow 6% for the next 5 years.

- Between 2019-2020, global wealth grew 7.9%

- So let's say global wealth grows at 6% till 2030. That would be a growth of 79% compounded. 418 x 1.79 = 750 trillion! or roughly $320 trillion more added to the economy.

- Say you have an extra $320 trillion to divide yourself between stocks, real estate, bonds, gold and other assets.

How much of that will be allotted to crypto alone?

Now first let me preface by saying many 'predictions' of crypto total market cap often looks at the current global wealth and trying to rationalize how crypto can reach X market cap by taking Y% off asset ABC or whatever. Like hurr durr BTC can replace gold and be $10 trillion. Then the counter argument will become: hurr durr Bitcoin sux gold is better are you insane BTC will never replace gold. The same thing happens when you try to think how much % of stocks can crypto take. This is very short sighted.

People forget that crypto will take at least another 10 years to fully mature, and they forget how global wealth is growing and compounding year after year. And this growth is exactly where crypto will capture the majority of its value. Why? Simple, young people have already expressed their preference for crypto over traditional assets like gold or bonds. Ask any 18 or 20 year old who have already bought crypto if they would rather have gold or bonds?

So while the old guard of the traditional assets will hold onto their assets, what I can see happening is that the future population will allocate more of their investment basket into crypto. So new wealth will buy crypto more, while old wealth prefer to hold their ground. Thus it is entirely possible for the global wealth allocation of 2030 to look like this:

$140 trillion in stocks

$300 trillion in real estate

$110 trillion in bonds

$10 trillion in gold

$100 trillion in crypto

----------> Even using this conservative approach, the total global wealth only adds up to $660 trillion. Still a couple more trillion as wiggle room. Maybe more will be added into crypto, maybe not. The point here isn't to say whether or not my prophecy will come true, the point is to show that crypto @ $100 trillion market cap is totally not hopium given by crypto addicts.

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(Also, I do believe that crypto is more efficient at allocating capital and giving value back to the communtity than stocks. The world of the future I think will move away from the corporate structure with shareholders and boards of directors, and more towards DAOs with community staking pools and a full tokenization of the revenue streams.)

If that's true, $100 trillion in crypto might actually be too conservative.