Halving predictions, too good to be true?

I know that in past, whenever there was a halving, it was followed by huge movement, couple month after it, and around 1-1.5y after halving there was peak/mania stage of bull run... I see lot of people predict, based on past, that same thing will occur in 2024-2025. In your opinion what's the chance of it not occurring that way?

Reason I ask this is that it sounds too good to be true, that all of us have the set date to get prepared for and it will repeat same way as it did last 3 time...

I mean I understand that Halving causes reduction in supply while demand on BTC keeps raising which causes price rise but for it to repeat, same way, seems little too “predictable”, hence, worrisome that it won’t repeat as we wish…

Also, if everyone is expecting this cycles to repeat, doesn’t it mean that it will occur earlier since demand will increase way sooner as everyone will try to be “early before real mania begins”?

Do you think there’s a huge chance that it will repeat around same way? If so why? If not and you’re skeptical, why?