The other day in a comment, someone said that the halving would have almost no impact, that 30,000 bitcoins are traded per day and that a reduction in the supply of 450 btc was only a difference of 1.5%.
I completely disagree. Among those 30k bitcoins, there are bots, short-term and medium-term trading that do not affect price. I can buy and sell bitcoin 100 times but at the end of the day the effect on price is zero.
The equivalent on the buy side would be for Michael Saylor to say that he is going to buy 450 bitcoins per day for the next 4 years to hodl forever. That's 164k bitcoins per year and 657k in the 4 year cycle, 35% of all bitcoins on exchanges.
Recently, a bank estimated that $100 million could increase the price by 1%. Doing some rough calculations:
657k bitcoins x $45,000 / $100M > +297% > 178,000 $/btc And that's just for the halving, not counting the possible increase on demand or FOMO.
Sorry for my english.
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