Just heard Michael Saylor say something along the lines of a bitcoin spot ETF is such a great portfolio diversifier because of its lack of correllarion that fiduciaries will have a hard time not adding bitcoin ETF exposure to their portfolio. Once a few of their peers do it that will make them uncompetative compared to their peers which means once a few portfolio managers add a bitcoin ETF to their portfolio they all will add it and in quick succession. Once one or two big players move in they will all have to move in just to maintain fiduciary responsibility. This includes the big retirement funds and 401k's of the world from London to Sydney.
The next point is funds generally dont muck around with amounts less than 1% so if they do add bitcoin to their portfolios (which they will) it will be at minimum a 1% allocation.
There is $115 trillion of assets under management worldwide, one percent of which is just over one trillion dollars. Adding one trillion to bitcoins market cap would take the price to $120k but that doesnt account for the rush of demand pushing the price up because of the multiplier effect.
Then we need to take into account there are only two halvings per decade and the next one is in just six months from now. The one after that wont be until 2028. New supply is going to half right as a trillion dollars worth of demand could potentially be rushing into bitcoin spot ETFs which need to be backed 1:1 with real bitcoin.
This halving phenomenon could double the effect of the market cap multiplier so instead of a 4x multiplier causing one trillion dollars worth of demand to take the price to $480k the timing of the halving could cause the ETF demand to have an 8x multiplier effect taking the price to $960k per btc.
I really get the feeling 2024 and 2025 is going to be insane to witness.
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