How "inflationary" or "deflationary" ETH really is since Merge

We see it all the time. Three days ago news sites reported ETH supply shifts back to inflationary, while last month it was reported that Ethereum turned deflationary.

Let's have a look at the total ETH supply since merge to show this "action" going on right now:

Total ETH supply since Merge

Looks pretty dramatic, doesn't it? Well, no actually if you look at the numbers - which even has to be expressed with an offset because the variation is so small.

The data in this plot only has a range of ~19k ETH. This is the difference between the highest and the lowest value since Merge. For comparison; The ETH supply increased by ~390k during the last 30 days before Merge.

So to better express how "inflationary" or "deflationary" the ETH supply really looks like, you can also plot it with 30 days prior to Merge:

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What's really going on: Total ETH supply since one month before Merge

I think this graph should express best how the ETH supply changed since Merge. Basically not at all. Calling it out as "inflationary" or "deflationary" is either counting peas or simply clickbait. What we have seen since Merge is nothing but statistical fluctuation and a long term tendency can not be determined with the limited data so far.

So be happy with the ETH you have and don't fear this bear market. They are not going to make much more of it.

^{Disclaimer: All my data is taken from Etherscan and plotted with Matplotlib in Python for better visualization.}