Introduction

When Coin Bureau started gathering a sizeable subscriber base, I started noticing that whenever they made a video about a certain cryptocurrency, that crypto would sometimes have a short term pump immediately after the release of the video. I also noticed that the lower the market cap of the project was, the larger the pump tended to be. In this post, I will be taking a quantitative approach to this and analysing the data to determine if this is actually true.

Methodology

I used the cryptocurrencies mentioned in the latest 20 videos from Coin Bureau's Youtube playlist 'Token/Coin Overviews' for my data. Using Youtube DataViewer, I determined the exact upload date and upload time of each video in UTC time. I then used TradingView's price data and Binance's historical price data to determine how much the crypto had pumped at 5 minutes, 15 minutes, and 1 hour after the video released.

*NOTE: Price change in % after 5 minutes, 15 minutes and 1 hour after are all with respect to the price at the time of video release

I sorted the cryptocurrencies according to their market cap at the time of video release (Top 1 to 20, 21 to 50, 51 to 100, and below top 100). Market cap data was sourced from Coinmarketcap using the Wayback Machine. This was because I hypothesised that the lower the market cap, the larger the pump would be since retail investors would be able to have a more significant impact on the price.

Results

Top 1 to 20 in market cap

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Cryptocurrencies that had positive price change after 5 minutes: 0/1 = 0%

Cryptocurrencies that had positive price change after 15 minutes: 1/1 = 100%

Cryptocurrencies that had positive price change after 1 hour: 1/1 = 100%

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Top 21 to 50 in market cap

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Cryptocurrencies that had positive price change after 5 minutes: 5/5 = 100%

Cryptocurrencies that had positive price change after 15 minutes: 3/5 = 60%

Cryptocurrencies that had positive price change after 1 hour: 4/5 = 80%

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Top 51 to 100 in market cap

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Cryptocurrencies that had positive price change after 5 minutes: 8/8 = 100%

Cryptocurrencies that had positive price change after 15 minutes: 7/8 = 87.5%

Cryptocurrencies that had positive price change after 1 hour: 8/8 = 100%

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Below top 100 in market cap

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Cryptocurrencies that had positive price change after 5 minutes: 3/3 =100%

Cryptocurrencies that had positive price change after 15 minutes: 3/3 = 100%

Cryptocurrencies that had positive price change after 1 hour: 3/3 = 100%

Conclusions

1. Cryptocurrencies below the top 50 in market cap are very likely to have an initial pump. If it's in the top 50, there's basically no point to buying since any pump that occurs is basically negligible.

2. The earlier you are, the higher your chances of making a profit. You can buy only 5 minutes after the video is released but still be too late to the pump (eg. COTI, IMX)

3. You should probably build / find a bot that automatically detects when Coin Bureau posts a new video and place a market buy order if the coin is outside the top 50 in market cap.

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TLDR

If you can't build or find a bot to do it for you, just turn on notifications on Coin Bureau's channel and if they release a video on a coin outside the top 50, buy some as soon as possible and you have a pretty good chance of making a profit if you sell an hour or so later.

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Obligatory NFA, DYOR etc.

Also, this took way longer than I expected

Happy new year everyone!

Edit: Some people mistakenly think that this is a repost. You are probably confusing it with this post , which was also made by me. At first glance they seem similar, but they focus on completely different timeframes and types of videos.