ICYMI, you can find my analysis calling the 29k price bottom on 20th July here.

Again, I'll try to keep this follow-up analysis simple enough that anyone is able to understand, but you may need a basic grasp of TA to understand certain terms used here. The charts, once again, are pretty easy to follow.

Mid-cycle correction phase bottom at 29k on July 20

July 20 was the only daily 'close' below 30k

Michael Burry was right, after a fashion

Credit where it's due. Michael Burry was partially right back in June. Bitcoin did break down from a head and shoulders pattern. But he was wrong with his identification of the pattern.

Back to TA school for Burry, who charted the neckline at 30k

The neckline of the pattern was not at 30k as he identified it, for a number of technical reasons but let's not get into that now.

The neckline was at 47k (2.618 secular fib level as shown in my previous post from July). A breakout (breakdown) below the neckline occurred in mid-May as shown in the chart below and the target of 33k was realized very quickly thereafter.

TA overview of the first half of 2021

An immediate recovery found rejection at established resistance (40600), coinciding with a death cross, leading to a Wyckoff accumulation phase and eventually springing from 29k (charted below).

Wyckoff Accumulation Range. Spring from 1.618 secular fib (29k)

July bottom, September higher low

How similar is the current cycle to 2013 and 2017? Let's take a look.

(Hint: Look out for correction bottom in July and higher low in September)

RSI breakout in July, higher low in September finds support at established resistance/support flip

July breakout, September higher low finds support at resistance/support flip

You know the drill. Insert spiderman pointing meme

Flag Breakout

Throughout September, the price consolidated in a flag. Similar to 2013 and 2017, retaining support at established resistance/support flip (40600) was critically important. Once that was secured, a breakout was imminent, and it materialized earlier today (estimated target 65k).

Critical support at 40600 retained. RSI support held on retest. Flag breakout

Monthly channel. Like clockwork. Tick.. Tock..

​

Closing thoughts

There's been a great deal of sustained price suppression in the derivatives market for the past 3 months with simultaneously aggressive spot market accumulation, which is typical of pre-parabolic phases. If you're of a mind to discourage this practice, ubiquitous in legacy markets, all you must do is take ownership of your keys.

My conservative estimate for this cycle's peak is c. 146k. Looking at log scale Fibonacci levels and factoring for diminishing returns theory, a peak price between 185k and 198k does seem plausible (Dec-Jan). I may further revise/refine this pending further analysis and I'll follow up if I do.

Bitcoin is a more mature asset today, with much more complex market dynamics than previous quadrennial cycles. In addition, there are macro incertitudes that may militate against or delay the realization of this cycle's peak.

That's not to say it's not the most compelling non-correlated risk-off hedge asset but these properties are somewhat undermined by Bitcoin continuing to trade on centralized/custodial venues, leading to exposure to certain risks that inhere in legacy markets, and legacy investors, at large, failing to fully appreciate its singular merits. That will come with time.

As always, DYOR.