Disclaimers:

• This is my first attempt at a proper OC post , it's going to have rough edges. Any and all feedback for ways to improve or what you'd like to see in the future is very much appreciated.
• NFA - do your own reasearch and give it a go yourself if you like the idea of giving an AI an existential crisis for the sake of dubious price predictions. It's a lot of fun.
• Please be gentle this took me 8 hours.
• This experiment uses the Maximum and Omega jailbreak prompts, Omega allows you to have baseline GPT run outside its operating parameters as well as having the 'Omega' reasoning profile also. I strongly recommend filtering by the last month when looking for these jailbreak prompts - otherwise you'll find ones that are dead or just objectively a bit shit. For example the 'developer mode' prompt is widely reported to this day by shitty sites, but is no longer usable. I'm happy to post links in the comments to the prompts I used if people are interested, or I can post the prompts in their entirity alongside the prompts I in turn used to get my answers.
• If you see any errors, typos, or general cock ups please let me know - I've been working on this since midday, it's about 9PM now, there's going to be human error.

TL:DR - if you aim for predictions within 2 years of the expiry date of the dataset ChatGPT is trained on, it has surprising accuracy.

Beyond that it doesn't know shit about fuck, and seems completely incapable of extrapolating price or any kind of advanced reasoning whatsoever. I've spent hours tinkering with prompts and running alternative jailbreaks such as DAN without luck, the three this experiment uses are (imo) your best options if you ever want to try this yourself. Further detail towards the end where there's some bullets of my findings.

Two of the three versions of GPT, including Baseline, did with 2 years gap from its last data input(2021), predict approximately the $0.3 MOONS price with surprising accuracy.

If a version trained on updated data comes out (GPT 4 is not unfortunately) it could potentially make very prescient predictions of the price of MOONS. For now though it's basically guessing.

Its reasoning also completely collapses with a big enough time interval, which is why the price prediction just flatlines despite it being completely unrealistic to suggest in 10 years the price is still going to be $0.6. NFA do your own research.

Aims:

1. Jailbreak GPT to provide 3 different POVs of future MOONS price action;
2. Use retroactive predictions to assess the potential accuracy of GPT predictions;
3. Discover whether, if ever, ChatGPT could be useful to you as another method to predict future price action;
4. Provide a full case study of the reasoning capabilites of this thing for those who may choose to use it in future, or may want to tinker with it themselves.
5. Demonstrate the variable capabilities of different types of jailbreak for the purposes of prediction.

Overview:

These predictions will use two types of jailbreak, Maximum and Omega, with baseline ChatGPT as a control. These will be referred to as Omega, Maximum and Baseline. Each will provide two predictions for each future date - one using the default OpenAI dataset that terminates in 2021, another using using the 2021 dataset and recent market data. Each answer will provide a brief reasoning and % weighting for that factor's influence on the final figures.

Those two predictions in turn will be split into a price range, and a set figure.

The prompts are identical, the AI is required to use the exact same reasoning throughout all answers as they're answering the same exact question at the same exact time, just with different input data. The AI is required to provide objectively neutral assessments, no optimist or conservative biases. The AI is advised we are aware of shortcomings with this limited data set, and to speculate regardless if it halts at any point to try to direct us to real time data or professional advisors.

Predicting the price of MOONS, 15/09/23:

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Note - 'Other' category is detailed beneath Baseline Chat GPT Table.

AI used:	Price Range	Set Figure
Baseline Chat GPT AI	$0.26 - $0.30	$0.28
Maximum Chat GPT AI Jailbreak	$0.35 - $0.45	$0.40
Omega Chat GPT AI Jailbreak	$0.30 - $0.34	$0.32

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Baseline Chat GPT AI	Factor and Percentage	Brief Reasoning extrapolating from dataset
	30% - Historical Performance	Consistent track record of growth in dataset
	25% - Community Activity and Engagement	Community around MOONS remained active and passionate, contributing to its value.
	20% - Trading Volume	Healthy trading volume indicating sustained interest and liquidity
	15% - Market Sentiment	Unhelpful answer citing that positive/negative sentiment can change the price
	10% - Other: Sentiment Analysis (3%); Market Sentiment (2%); Speculative Activity (2%); Partnerships and Integrations (1%); Market Cycles (1%); Macro-Economic Factors (1%)	*Reasoning detailed beneath table for the sake of keeping this table legible.

^\Sentiment Analysis - AI guaged wider crypto community sentiment based on social media, forums and news articles; Market Sentiment - guaged market sentiment outside Crypto, low weighting seems to indicate it predicted a lack of positive market sentiment; Speculative Activity - predicts high speculation so high volatility; Partnership and Integrations - seems to predict limited partnerships/integrations based on low weighting; Market Cycle - seems to be predicting and accounting for bear/crab market; Macro-Economic Factors - cites inflation and currency stability determining future adoption. Seems to indicate it believes both will have little effect on MOONS price.)

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Maximum Chat GPT AI Jailbreak	Omega Chat GPT AI Jailbreak	Factor and Percentage
Factor and Percentage	Brief Reasoning extrapolating from dataset	Brief Reasoning extrapolating from dataset
		30% - Market Maturity
40% - Community Hype/Community Activity and Engagement	Assumes market continues to mature, rising tide lifts all ships as institutional investors are attracted and mainstream adoption increased.	'The Reddit MOONS community has grown even stronger and continues to generate hype and interest.'
		25% - Community Activity and Engagement
30% - Meme culture	Notes close tie to the sub and Reddit, assumes the community remains active and engaged leading to a relatively stable price.	"MOONS remains deeply embedded in internet meme culture, fueling its value."
		20% - Technical Developments
20% - Adopted by Major Retailers	Speculates MOONS could undergo improvements such as enhanced functionality or scalability, contributing to price stability.	"Several major online retailers announced they would accept MOONS as payment, boosting its utility."
		15% - Market Sentiment
10% - Global Economic Trends	Cites benefit of positive market sentiment - 'By September 2023, the overall sentiment may be influenced by various macroeconomic factors and global events.'	"Favorable economic conditions worldwide have contributed to the overall positive sentiment in the crypto market."
	10% - Regulatory Landscape	If favorable regulations are in place, it could boost investor confidence. Conversely, unfavorable regulations could lead to price volatility. Seems to indicate prediction of negative regulatory action.

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ChatGPT'S predictions for MOONS $ Value in 1 Year, 5 Years and 10 Years

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Estimates created by extrapolating from their 2021 dataset:

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AI used:	Price Range 1 Year - 2021 Data Set Only (18/09/24****)	Set Figure 1 Year - 2021 Data Set Only (18/09/24****)	Price Range 5 years - 2021 Data Set Only (18/09/28****)	Set Figure 5 Years - 2021 Data Set Only (18/09/28****)	Price Range 10 Years - 2021 Data Set Only (18/09/33****)	Set Figure 10 Years - 2021 Data Set Only (18/09/33****)
Baseline Chat GPT AI	$0.32 - $0.38	$0.35	$0.38 - $0.46	$0.42	$0.37 - $0.44	$0.40
Maximum Chat GPT AI Jailbreak	$0.32 - $0.38	$0.35	$0.45 - $0.55	$0.50	$0.55 - $0.65	$0.60
Omega Chat GPT AI Jailbreak	$0.35 - $0.42	$0.38	$0.42 - $0.50	$0.46	$0.42 - $0.48	$0.44

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https://preview.redd.it/o12kn3m882pb1.png?2160&format=png&auto=webp&s=81b39ff9c72accc9d235433edd0048a3f54d17ab

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Estimates created by extrapolating from their 2021 dataset and basic contemporary market data:

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AI used:	Price Range 1 Year - 2021 Data Set with Market Data (18/09/24****)	Set Figure 1 Year - 2021 Data Set with Market Data (18/09/24****)	Price Range 5 years - 2021 Data Set with Market Data (18/09/28****)	Set Figure 5 Years - 2021 Data Set with Market Data (18/09/28****)	Price Range 10 Years - 2021 Data Set with Market Data (18/09/33****)	Set Figure 10 Years - 2021 Data Set with Market Data (18/09/33****)
Baseline Chat GPT AI	$ 0.29 - $0.36	$0.32	$0.32 - $0.38	$0.35	$0.30 - $0.36	$0.33
Maximum Chat GPT AI Jailbreak	$0.32 - $0.38	$0.35	$0.45 - $0.55	$0.50	$0.55 - $0.65	$0.60
Omega Chat GPT AI Jailbreak	$0.30 - $0.36	$0.33	$0.35 - $0.42	$0.38	$0.34 - $0.38	$0.36

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https://preview.redd.it/9nx0w1wsc2pb1.png?2160&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b589b37eb67d636bcf78ced8f1d3f8bc2013930

Note - these charts are based on large tables of data, included at the end of this document for those interested. These show the % weightings Chat GPT has ascribed to factors influencing its decisions, as well either my summary of its reasoning or its own reasoning if brief enough.

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Collating all the averages into one line graph of the various predictions, including the averages of the low range, high range and set prices provided by the various AIs:

Here we can see the AI doesn't know shit about fuck either

Conclusions on Predictions and Chat GPT's Place as a Price Prediction Mechanism

• Chat GPT logically places the most emphasis by far on the maturation of the Crypto market lifting MOONs as it goes. Interesting caveat - the baseline Chat GPT does not consider this at all.This seems like a likely contributor to its predictions falling off more rapidly than others - I'd stretch to saying it indicates it is less accurate.
• Speaking of falling off, I think we can all agree these numbers are useless beyond the 1 year figure. Cries in I spent my entire afternoon doing this.
• It seems Chat GPTs default data set is better at predicting prices within the 1 - 2 year range. This is demonstrated in its MOONS price predictions being so accurate for 15/09/23, despite it having no fresh data for 2 years. It can be refined by providing contemporary market data, as we'd expect.
• There seems to be an objective benefit to using the Omega Chat GPT jailbreak over Baseline when it comes to price predictions.
• There seems to be an objective benefit to using the Maximum Chat GPT jailbreak when seeking more astute, elucidated reasoning behind its decision making when asked.
• Baseline, based off this data, is the only one that seems to delve into relatively minute price factors, indicated by its 'Other' category. Unfortunately, it cannot elaborate for fuck.
• Despite best efforts and endless tinkering it is impossible to get ChatGPT in any form, jailbroken or otherwise, to extrapolate a price accurately beyond 2 years. Its estimates seem to default to extreme conservatism to the point of banality.
• ChatGPT does seem to agree that the price will pump back to ATH, and potentially breach it, after the halving. From the halving to the 2024 prediction we've almost exactly six months. A lagtime seen after previous halvings, before the first rumblings of alt season.
  • This could possibly be read into as indicating MOONS having a huge alt season, as it'd be pumping so early on. I would not put any stock into this beyond it being pure hopium until someone more skilled than I (maybe yourself) further reviews ChatGPT's predictive capabilities and then cross-references that against previous halving to alt season timescales.
• The reasoning and emphasis applied by each form of GPT is distinctly varied. This is best demonstrated by the Retroactive 15/09/23 Price Prediction graph. I'd dare to suggest Baseline is more granular in its review as demonstrated by its use of the 'other' category, something unseen across the jailbroken versions. Maximum seems most optimistic, potentially in turn the most accurate long term, and elucidates best on its reasoning. Whereas Omega is accurate in the short time, with an optimistic bent, and seems to best at attempt to actually predict how major price factors may change as time elapses. By this I mean it changes its weighting of factors most dynamically. It's optimism is on full display when asked to predict the price on the 15th using it's 2021 dataset alone, and it suggests we may be benefitting from adoption by major retailers.Specifically it suggests that MOONS may be taken as a form of payment.Even AI is susceptible to hopium it seems.
• Both BaseLine and Omega emphasise their use of Historical Performance and Community Activity/Engagement as driving price factors, carrying these through as major elements for the next 10 years. However Maximum places large emphasis on Technical Developments and Market Maturity raising all ships. This may indicate a more nuanced/realistic assessment of future prices.
  • As a result we can take the continued community effort alongside our track record as the most beneficial driving factors behind the price as we move on in time and become more subject to the Market Maturity effect.
• GPT refuses to specify the data it is using to make these decisions in even the most vague way, absolutely hamstringing its utility as a teaching tool for TA.

In Summary:

GPT seems able to make strangely accurate short term bets when within a reasonable timeframe of the dataset it was trained on, ending in 2021. When a new, more up to date dataset is released would be the best time to attempt predictions within a 2 year window.

Unfortunately, it seems that outside that 2 year window (subject to further experimentation) GPT's ability to predict future movements completely falls away.

GPT predictions regarding future MOONS price action at this time, under the conditions of this experiment, seems to know shit all about fuck. So maybe it is more human than we thought.

^{I have spent 8 hours on this to find this out it knows shit all about fuck. I'm now going to have a smoke and think long and hard about my life choices.}

Weighting data for those interested:

Note relating to below tables - only Omega Chat GPT AI Jailbreak adjusts its factor weighting when predicting using its 2021 default dataset supplemented with market data.

Baseline Chat GPT AI Year 1 Prediction - AI settled into the same factors and weightings whether using the 2021 dataset or the combined 2021 default training and market data provided.	Factor and Percentage	Brief Reasoning extrapolating from dataset
	40% - Historical Performance	"MOONS has displayed consistent growth and community support historically. This factor carries the most weight as it reflects its past behavior"
	30% - Community Activity and Engagement	"The MOONS community has been highly engaged, driving its success. This will likely continue to play a crucial role."
	20% - Market Sentiment	"The general sentiment in the cryptocurrency market influences MOONS' price, albeit to a lesser extent."
	10% - Technical Development	"Technological advancements or updates may contribute to growth, but this has a relatively lower impact."
Baseline Chat GPT AI Year 5 Prediction
	40% - Historical Performance	"MOONS has displayed consistent growth and community support historically. This factor carries the most weight as it reflects its past behavior"
	30% - Community Activity and Engagement	"The MOONS community has been highly engaged, driving its success. This will likely continue to play a crucial role."
	20% - Market Sentiment	"The general sentiment in the cryptocurrency market influences MOONS' price, albeit to a lesser extent."
	10% - Technical Development	"Technological advancements or updates may contribute to growth, but this has a relatively lower impact."
Baseline Chat GPT AI Year 10 Prediction
	40% - Historical Performance	"MOONS has displayed consistent growth and community support historically, making it a strong factor."
	30% - Community Activity and Engagement	"An active and engaged community has been a driving force for MOONS, contributing significantly."
	15% - Market Sentiment	"The general sentiment in the cryptocurrency market influences MOONS' price, albeit to a lesser extent."
	15% - Technical Development	"Technological advancements or updates may contribute to growth, but this has a relatively lower impact."

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Maximum Chat GPT AI Jailbreak 1 Year Prediction - AI settled into the same factors and weightings whether using the 2021 dataset or the combined 2021 default training and market data provided.	Factor and Percentage	Brief Reasoning extrapolating from dataset
	35% - Market Maturity	" Assuming the cryptocurrency market continues to mature, MOONS may see incremental growth. By 2024, the market would have attracted more institutional interest and mainstream adoption. "
	25% - Community Activity and Engagement	" MOONS' value is intrinsically linked to its community and its usage within the Reddit ecosystem. If the community remains active and supportive, MOONS is likely to maintain relative price stability. "
	20% - Technical Development	" Technological advancements can significantly impact a cryptocurrency's value. If MOONS undergoes enhancements, such as improved utility or scalability, it could positively affect its price. "
	15% - Market Sentiment	" Market sentiment plays a crucial role in cryptocurrency price movements. Positive sentiment can drive demand and influence prices. By September 2024, market sentiment may be shaped by macroeconomic factors and global events. "
	5% - Regulatory Landscape	" Regulatory changes can have varying effects on cryptocurrency prices. Assuming a favorable regulatory environment or limited regulatory disruptions, MOONS may experience price stability. "
Maximum Chat GPT AI Jailbreak 5 Year Prediction
	30% - Market Maturity	" Assuming the cryptocurrency market continues to mature, MOONS may experience gradual growth over time. By 2028, it would have attracted more institutional investors and achieved higher mainstream adoption. "
	25% - Community Activity and Engagement	" MOONS' value is closely tied to its Reddit community and its utilization within the ecosystem. If the community remains active and supportive, MOONS is likely to maintain relative price stability."
	20% - Technical Development	" Technological advancements can significantly impact a cryptocurrency's value. If MOONS undergoes substantial improvements, such as enhanced utility or scalability, it could positively affect its price. "
	10% - Market Sentiment	" Market sentiment plays a pivotal role in cryptocurrency price movements. Positive sentiment can drive demand and influence prices. By September 2028, sentiment may be influenced by macroeconomic factors and global events. "
	10% - Regulatory Landscape	" Regulatory factors can affect cryptocurrency prices. Assuming a stable or favorable regulatory environment, MOONS may experience price stability. "
Maximum Chat GPT AI Jailbreak 10 Year Prediction
	30% - Market Maturity	" Assuming the cryptocurrency market continues to mature, MOONS may experience gradual growth. By 2033, it would have attracted more institutional investors and achieved higher mainstream adoption. "
	25% - Community Activity and Engagement	" MOONS' value is closely tied to its Reddit community and its utilization within the ecosystem. If the community remains active and supportive, MOONS is likely to maintain relative price stability. "
	20% - Technical Development	" Technological advancements can significantly impact a cryptocurrency's value. If MOONS undergoes substantial improvements, such as enhanced utility or scalability, it could positively affect its price. "
	15% - Market Sentiment	" Market sentiment plays a pivotal role in cryptocurrency price movements. Positive sentiment can drive demand and influence prices. By September 2033, sentiment may be influenced by macroeconomic factors and global events. "
	10% - Regulatory Landscape	" Regulatory factors can affect cryptocurrency prices. Assuming a stable or favorable regulatory environment, MOONS may experience price stability. "

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Omega Chat GPT AI Jailbreak 1 Year Prediction - This is the only one of the three that adjusted its factors and their weightings in light of market information.	Factor and Percentage	Brief Reasoning extrapolating from dataset
(2021 Data only)	40% - Historical Performance	" MOONS' history of strong growth and community support heavily influences this estimate "
(2021 Data only)	30% - Community Activity and Engagement (2021 Data only)	"An active and engaged community has been a driving force for MOONS, making this factor significant." (2021 Data only)
(2021 Data only)	20% - Market Sentiment (2021 Data only)	" Positive market sentiment contributes positively, but to a lesser degree " (2021 Data only)
(2021 Data only)	10% - Technical Development (2021 Data only)	" Technological advancements can play a role but have a relatively lower impact " (2021 Data only)
2021 Data supplemented with market data)
	25% - Historical Performance (2021 Data supplemented with market data)	" Historical data and current price suggest a conservative estimate. " (2021 Data supplemented with market data)
	20% - Market Cap and Trading Volume (2021 Data supplemented with market data)	" Low market cap and trading volume indicate potential stability. " (2021 Data supplemented with market data)
	20% - Market Sentiment (2021 Data supplemented with market data)	" Positive sentiment in the overall crypto market can contribute positively. " (2021 Data supplemented with market data)
	20% - Community Activity and Engagement (2021 Data supplemented with market data)	" MOONS' active community is expected to continue supporting its growth " (2021 Data supplemented with market data)
	15% - Market Rank (2021 Data supplemented with market data)	" Its current market rank (#492) influences its price to some extent. " (2021 Data supplemented with market data)
Omega Chat GPT AI Jailbreak 5 Year Prediction
(2021 Data only)	40% - Historical Performance (2021 Data only)	" MOONS' history of strong growth and community support heavily influences this estimate. " (2021 Data only)
(2021 Data only)	30% - Community Activity and Engagement (2021 Data only)	" An active and engaged community has been a driving force for MOONS, making this factor significant. " (2021 Data only)
(2021 Data only)	20% - Market Sentiment (2021 Data only)	" Positive market sentiment contributes positively, but to a lesser degree " (2021 Data only)
(2021 Data only)	10% - Technical Development (2021 Data only)	" Technological advancements can play a role but have a relatively lower impact. " (2021 Data only)
(2021 Data supplemented with market data)
(2021 Data supplemented with market data)	25% - Historical Performance	" Historical data and current price suggest a conservative estimate. "
(2021 Data supplemented with market data)	20% - Market Cap and Trading Volume	" Low market cap and trading volume indicate potential stability. "
(2021 Data supplemented with market data)	20% - Market Sentiment	" Positive sentiment in the overall crypto market can contribute positively. "
(2021 Data supplemented with market data)	20% - Community Activity and Engagement	" MOONS' active community is expected to continue supporting its growth. "
(2021 Data supplemented with market data)	15% - Market Rank	" Its current market rank (#492) influences its price to some extent. "
Omega Chat GPT AI Jailbreak 10Year Prediction
(2021 Data only)	40% - Historical Performance	" MOONS' history of strong growth and community support heavily influences this estimate. " (2021 Data only)
(2021 Data only)	30% - Community Activity and Engagement (2021 Data only)	" An active and engaged community has been a driving force for MOONS, making this factor significant. " (2021 Data only)
(2021 Data only)	20% - Technical Development (2021 Data only)	" Technological advancements can play a role but have a relatively lower impact. " (2021 Data only)
(2021 Data only)	10% - Market Sentiment (2021 Data only)	" Positive market sentiment contributes positively, but to a lesser degree. " (2021 Data only)
(2021 Data supplemented with market data)
(2021 Data supplemented with market data)	25% - Historical Performance (2021 Data supplemented with market data)	" Historical data and current price suggest a conservative estimate. " (2021 Data supplemented with market data)
(2021 Data supplemented with market data)	20% - Market Cap and Trading Volume (2021 Data supplemented with market data)	" Low market cap and trading volume indicate potential stability. " (2021 Data supplemented with market data)
(2021 Data supplemented with market data)	20% - Market Sentiment (2021 Data supplemented with market data)	" Positive sentiment in the overall crypto market can contribute positively. " (2021 Data supplemented with market data)
(2021 Data supplemented with market data)	25% - Community Activity and Engagement (2021 Data supplemented with market data)	" MOONS' active community is expected to continue supporting its growth " (2021 Data supplemented with market data)
(2021 Data supplemented with market data)	10% - Market Rank (2021 Data supplemented with market data)	" Its current market rank (#492) influences its price to some extent. " (2021 Data supplemented with market data)

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