If the next 50 years are anything like the last 52 years…

Then the price of gold will be $80,000 per ounce. S&P500 will be at $230,000. An average house price will be $9–10million. And the total M2 money supply will be $640trillion.

Unfortunately, the average salary will only be $340,000 (average salary was $9,800 in 1970, and is $60,000 today. This is a 3.55% average annual increase in average salaries from 1970 to today).

This is based on the observation that, since 1970 (the last year of the gold standard), M2 money supply grew from $590billion back then to over $20.8trillion today, which represents a 7.1% average annual rate of increase over 52 years.

Gold, stocks, and average house price have seen comparable average rates of appreciation at 7.8%, 7.9%, and 6.4%, respectively (in 1970, gold was $38/ounce, S&P500 was $83, and average house price was $17,000. Compared to today, gold is $1,900/ounce, S&P500 is $4,400, and average house price is $416,100).

You might think that these numbers are impossible in 50 years. But that’s exactly what your grandpa would have thought 52 years ago as well, yet here we are.

Why are the next 50 years different?

Because we have Bitcoin. Prior to Bitcoin, we only had gold, stocks, and real estate as a means of storing our value (and government bonds, which I discount). When Bitcoin’s true value is realized, it’s market cap will be among gold’s, stock’s, and real estate’s market cap.

If Bitcoin’s market cap was to approach and match the gold, stocks, real estate, or the dollar’s market cap within 50 years, then it’s conceivable that Bitcoin would be $20-$60million per coin, or more when considering that the rest of the world may also be using it. This would represent an average annual rate of appreciation of only 15-20% of Bitcoin over the next 50 years to reach this target and match the other main investment’s market caps that are growing at roughly 7% as well.

Edit: Will the dollar last another 50 years at this rate?