If you aren't buying now, you will regret your choice - Part 2

So about 2 weeks ago I made this post:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ulvokw/if_you_arent_buying_now_you_will_regret_your/

The logic was simple: we are more than 50% down from the all time high of BTC and ETH. If you believe in the long term gains of BTC and ETH then you should DCA a bit at these prices rather than trying to time the dip. Not to entirely spend all your money right away but to invest a percentage of your dip money at these prices.

The reply to the post was overwhelmingly about how “it will dip more” and that this is too early.

So I thought, okay let me check up and see what the situation really is in the 2 weeks since then.

The first is how much has BTC been under the 30k mark. I think under 30k any purchase of BTC will be a good way to lower your entry price. So:

4H time frame with the dotted line at 30,000$

So we are looking at about 30 candles on the 4H time frame which means you had 30 * 4 = 120 Hrs to buy BTC under 30k. Meanwhile, it has been 288 Hrs since I made that post.

So you had a 120/288*100 = 41.6 % chance to buy BTC at below 30k

Now how does it compare when we look at below 28k. This was what a lot of commenters said they would start buying.

4H time frame with the dotted line at 28,000$

We are barely looking at 4 candles on the 4H time frame which is about 16Hrs. So then the possibility drops drastically to 16/288*100 = 5.55 %

And then finally for all the degens who were saying that they will start buying the dip under 25k, the lowest price we have hit was 26700$

So let's look at risk versus reward opportunity. Going from 30k to 28k is about a 6~7 % change. But for that drop, you window of buying has dropped from 41% to 5%, almost a 8 fold drop

This isn’t a post that is promoting FOMO. This is just a reminder to not be greedy and stick to your DCA. Don’t try to time the dip. If you plan to go weekly or monthly DCA then stick to it regardless of the market. The moment you look and think I will buy after it dips some more, you might never get your chance back.

Hope this helps