If you entered in 2021, your exit strategy should be in Q3-2025, not in 2022. Aim for the next halving.

This is in reference to the stock-to-flow model, which I believe is a solid indication on BTC's path albeit taking a different route right now. The stock-to-flow model suggests that should be roaming in the region of USD 100k during this period, but we have not even seen it going passed USD 70k yet.

https://preview.redd.it/wny63lj62ry81.png?1789&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8222f0ca93d62aa793f7d5a2164437c0e2ff619

That being said, there is a glaring change of pattern between the previous bear market, against the current bear market.

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Realistically, BTC does not go lower than its previous ATH, according to previous patterns. So, we probably won't see BTC going down below USD 19,970. This is why this current bear market is interesting. We are seeing possibly a lowering in the drawdown.

The bear market is getting more and more bearable. Pun intended.

That being said, if you had entered into crypto this year, then the next point of exit should be by the next halving in 2024/2025. Although the current halving hasn't met the expectations yet, the previous halving would suggest that the metrics is rather promising. If you're concerned about the stock-to-flow model not meeting the prediction this time, consider that BTC had exceeded the stock-to-flow prices previously as well. It will eventually balances out.

However, you do need to pay additional considerations if you're jumping into alts.

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Edit: I have just found out through the comments that the S2F model is invalidated. I stand corrected, and appreciate the comments.

My key takeaway is chiming through Plan B's note as well-

1. We are seeing possibly lower drawdown in the market (Through lower ceiling, and higher floors.)
2. There's a clear break of pattern in this 2022 bear market in comparison to the previous two.
3. BTC have not went below it's previous 'ATH', in this case, it's around USD 19k.

I am however still adamant that you should go through at least 1 full cycle of BTC halving for your exit strategy. This isn't a get-rich scheme, and the cycle is rather inevitable IMO. It's just that now, we are seeing a different ratio to the cycle.