I'm curious if anyone actually thinks that the SEC will fold on the Court Case Friday?

Right now, the narrative seems to be that the SEC is going to be forced to "pivot", make way, and allow Grayscale to convert to a BTC ETF, while possibly simultaneously giving the green light to other players in the queue as well.

I.e Come the Friday deadline to appeal their case, pundits believe that the SEC will simply NOT appeal their case and allow the closed ended GBTC to convert to an open-ended ETF.

They say the "trend is your friend". The 12 or so year long trend points to a clear and resounding anti-BTC & anti-crypto stance by the SEC.

I am positioned to benefit from the SEC approving this ETF, but I think this popular narrative is completely undermining their long term stance, and I think the SEC will continue to drag this out until the 11th hour.

This is a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event. Regardless of their decision, I see only two possible scenarios come Friday.

1. The SEC folds. They open the gate to open ended ETF conversion. We see an immediate pop in the price of BTC in the order of 8-15% (judging off the initial pop on August 29) followed by

A. This overcrowded trade being faded down over the following day or so, combined with

B. A piling of shorts into BTC futures to benefit from the arbitrage trade between the GBTC NAV and the spot price.

1. The SEC appeals, adding greater uncertainty of the eventual ETF approval, simultaneously the BTC price tanks, strengthening its recent price trend and mirroring its 4 year cyclical trend of dumping just before the halving.

The US macro environment is currently in no shape for market participants to take on extra speculation. The yield curve is edging toward its "un-inversion" event, signaling recession and a risk asset selloff.

Effectively, whether you're bullish or bearish on the decision of the SEC between now and Friday, I would caution against blindly buying in on the off chance that the SEC doesn't appeal and suggest that cheaper prices are on the horizon, regardless of their decision.