Is the BTC halving already priced in?

In the previous bull runs that bull market seemed to start around the BTC halving. During the past two bulls markets, no one really knew that until after the fact. Going forward, almost everyone in here, and everyone aware of crypto is expecting the BTC halving to start the next bull run.

But, if everyone thinks that, everyone will already be in their position waiting for the halving. So won't the BTC halving already been priced in. Everyone will have already taken their position in the markets, so the bull won't start at that time. If the prices don't increase drastically all the newbies won't come in, there won't be much FOMO cause the price is doing much.

Is it reasonable to think that if we are all expecting a rally, then there probably won't be a rally?