Is the US creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve factored into the price of BTC? No.

"The market is an imperfect forward pricing mechanism."
u/nanooverbtc

Is BTC near it's top or will it keep climbing this year. It's an important question with lots of money on the line across all of crypto. If Bitcoin is at the top and only tumbles from here alts will see a bloodbath if Bitcoin has room to climb alts will be lifted and some might be able to make gains against BTC from Alt specific catalysts.

So with the context of us all having money on the line lets try to answer the question, "Is a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve factored into the price?"

TLDR: NO

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What is a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve?

A strategic Bitcoin Reserve as introduced by Cynthia Lummis would see the US Government purchase 1M Bitcoin, ~5% of the total Bitcoin Supply over a number of years. source

When Trump first uttered support for a strategic Bitcoin Reserve at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference the price of BTC was ~$68K.

Although the price of Bitcoin was largely sideways until November 7th as the markets were largely unsure if Trump would be elected and have a chance to implement his plan the price of BTC today sits at $102K, up $34K or +50% since then.

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So is it already factored into the price of Bitcoin?

The simple answer is no as Trump has a Loooooong history of lying and not fulfilling promises the market overall expects the US not to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in 2025, so despite this being a promise of his campaign and the market having partially priced it in, it is not fully priced in.

Source: Although I have a history of pointing out Polymarket and their shady markets resolves I am going to reference their market "US National Bitcoin Reserve in 2025?"

https://preview.redd.it/nirayrcalebe1.png?1236&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d896d7b025478f1a5dd6eccebf1b50b02678f1f

Which sits at only 40% as evidence that the current price of Bitcoin hasn't fully priced in a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. After all how can something be priced in when people think there is less than a 2/5th chance of it actually happening.

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Baseless price predictions based off change in BTC price since July 2024 strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement.

I'm not going to claim this is an accurate prediction but if the price of Bitcoin increased 50% on 40% odds, it actually happening and being fully priced in (+60% odds) would be a 75% increase in BTC or ~$178K BTC.

Again this is baseless price predictions looking at only one thing and baselessly extrapolating. But the fact remains a US National Bitcoin Reserve (happening) is not yet priced in to the price of BTC.