is this the best time to be stacking bitcoin? yes, and it might be the last chance to accumulate.

Before every halving everyone confidently proclaims it is already priced in and nothing will happen, and every time they are proven wrong as we enter a new bull market right after the halving.

Previously the fact the halving was never priced in may have been because bitcoin was a young nascent innefficient market with no historical data showing how a halving would affect the price. This time around we have seen how three prior halvings have affected supply and demand so it is safe to say while it may not be fully priced in before the fact it should at least be priced in more so than prior halvings. This should make it obvious that anyone who wants to own bitcoin should have accumulated their stack before the next halving. This should be even more apparant as the next halving will take place after critical mass mainstream adoption has begun and likely during a chaotic financial crisis triggered by a 2023 recession and lingering inflation issues.

The next halving is now only 12 months away and we are in the depths of a minus 80% draw down and bear mearket. So logically if accumulation should be completed by the end of this year the question is will the price be lower later in the year of higher? It is possible the price may be lower by august for example but at the same time its foolish to hope for that outcome just to be able to stack more as bitcoin has shown it is unlikely to fall more than 80% in a bear market.

The most logical play right now is to dollar cost average between now and the end of this year to ensure you have your position locked in at least a few months prior to the next halving. If this is obvious to us then best believe it is even more obvious to all the institutions around the world that are looking for the right time to start adding bitcoin to their balance sheets.

Taking into account all of this information its likely every month going forward will be marked by more and more demand leading up to the halving as bigger and bigger players try to accumulate their stack before the end of this year.

The next 8 months are going to be the last opportunity to accumulate bitcoin before the whole world is trying to get in after the next halving and during a period of lingering inflation and a deep financial crisis.

As demand ramps up month over month for the rest of this year its possible we will be at new all time highs before the next halving takes place and the halving will be like throwing gasoline on an already out of control fire taking bitcoin to highs no one can forsee today. The next bull run may be the strongest and most dramatic yet as it will be driven by an actual financial crisis and institutional demand instead of just retail speculation.

We have seen that two large corporations (microstrategy and tesla) can trigger bitcoin to run from 10k to 60k. What happens as 100 of the worlds largest corporations start adding bitcoin to their treasury reserves month by month over the rest of this year? We could easily run from 20k to 100k and already be above 100k before the next halving causes a supply shock which could send bitcoin from 100k to god only knows how high.