While a lot of people like to stick to a narrative once it has briefly played out, they rarely remain consistent.

Take the narrative of Bitcoin being coupled to and following the US stock market.

When Covid started, we started to see many months of Bitcoin following stocks with above 0.5 correlation.

And we saw several moments where Bitcoin hit correlations to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ as high as 0.7 and 0.8 (considered strong correlations).

But now, Bitcoin has been back below 0.5, and even sometimes being as low as 0.2 in correlation with brief instances of negative correlation.

But there is one narrative that seems to keep coming back strong, and that's the halving cycles.

The more you zoom out, the more they seem similar. But the more you zoom in, the more you see that each cycle has its own characteristics.

What happened with past halvings?

Zoomed out, past cycles look like they roughly follow the same 4 year cycles. With a rally before the halving, then after the halving a short period of lull, then volatility cranks up, often with a first Wyckoff distribution, then with the volatility intensifying into the rest of the bullrun. Then followed by a crash and a bear cycle.

Zoomed in, you see the differences.

They are following these patterns a little differently each time:

2016 halving

2020 halving

https://preview.redd.it/eq60iwgqyk6d1.jpg?225&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dd817903107c3eb3da4f2c80c99be3cce3df931f

What is happening now? What are the different characteristics?

In this cycle, while the general 4 year cycle has played out like clockwork, we are seeing different characteristics.

Differences

This pre-halving rally has done ~4.7x

The previous pre-halving rally in 2020 did ~4x

In this cycle the pre-halving rally hit the previous ATH, something that hasn't been done before.

This cycle has the big ETF news.

What can we expect?

One thing you can count on, is increase in volatility as we get deeper into the new halving.

The rest is down to your crystal ball. No one really knows what will happen.

There's two school of thoughts here:

1- Theory 1: history rhyming.

In this theory, we'll be continuing the "lull" phase without dipping that much lower, but in the upcoming months (maybe even just weeks) we'll have our next leg up with a big rally, then a Wyckoff distribution.

2- Theory 2: the big distribution.

This is where we could break from the typical pattern. With the more volatile start of this cycle, we could actually see ourselves in a much larger Wyckoff distribution, and see the price drop off in the upper $40Ks.

Theory 2...maybe it will be a little different.

https://preview.redd.it/0ztbrxge1l6d1.jpg?1239&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2134c8e20d9db1f3180b9d0d0e0ffbebd8a7a3a2