"Macroeconomy is just a big word thrown around by small men"

I'm seeing the word "macro" being thrown around here constantly. Same goes for Twitter "crypto experts" and Telegram groups. A year ago everyone was a Wyckoff expert, and now it seems they have switched their expertise to macroeconomy. So, do all of them know what they're talking about? No, the big majority don't, they just like how smart they feel when they say or write the word "macroeconomy". In November, at the top, everyone was screaming about $100k. Now, everyone is screaming about the bottom not being in until the FED actually pivots. Can you see the pattern here?

As I said, there is a general opinion among these "macro experts" that the markets won't bottom before the FED actually pivots. If you think the markets will behave as straight forward as this, you'll most likely be in for a bad ride. Let me explain why.

There's a fundamental difference in how the FED approaches the macro and how the markets do. FED is backwards looking. This means that they look at the past data and then they adjust the measures they are taking to control inflation accordingly. Markets are forward looking. This means they are going to anticipate the pivot and position themselves before the FED actually pivots. As soon as the markets see the light at the end of the tunnel, they will react. When this happens the majority will remain sidelined, confused and still talking about macro.

Why am I saying this? Well, I'm seeing a lot of people spreading really bad TA and saying: "Bottom will at $14k, $10k, $8k, historical moves, muh macro, blah blah". As someone who's been trading crypto a long time I can guarantee you that even the best traders have a really hard time recognizing where the bottom is.

Am I saying this is the bottom? No, I don't know that. But do I want crypto exposure at these prices? Absolutely. I know we are likely to have bounces which will be good opportunities to take some profits and de-risk positions. If the range resolves to the downside, I'm happy with continuing to build my positions at lower prices, if it breaks upwards, well, good thing I have exposure.