Major change to Bitcoin Cycle

After the most recent halving, 450 bitcoins are produced daily, amounting to approximately 164,250 bitcoins annually.

In 2024, ETFs alone absorbed around 1.5 million bitcoins, while MicroStrategy acquired approximately 234,000 bitcoins. Together, these two buyers reduced the available supply by about 4,750 bitcoins per day—far exceeding daily production.

Another change in dynamics of supply/ demand is that MicroStrategy has stated that they will NOT become a seller of bitcoin at any point in the future (essentially removing supply long term).

For 2025, MicroStrategy has announced plans to continue scaling up its bitcoin purchases. Meanwhile, companies like MARA, Metaplanet, and Semler Scientific are beginning to issue debt to buy more bitcoin, mirroring aspects of MicroStrategy’s strategy.

Even without participation from municipal, state, or federal governments, it appears demand is already outstripping the incoming supply. Governments are also rumored to be exploring programs to acquire bitcoin, potentially further reducing available supply. Company after company is voting on holding bitcoin for “cash” reserves. This is likely to expand quarter after quarter throughout the foreseeable future. Some will elect the strategy.

By the end of 2024, many of the long-term holders have been liquidating and diversifying their positions, but the supply shock appears inevitable in 2025 or 2026.

Now, consider the next halving in 2028. If daily bitcoin production drops from 450 to 225 per day, how significant is the impact when demand is already far greater and increasing? This raises the question of whether future halvings are becoming less relevant. If demand continues to dwarf supply, it suggests that the traditional four-year cycle tied to halvings may no longer hold as much predictive power.

Questions:

So why are so many still focused on the mining-related impact of future cycles?

Why are forecasts still based on past patterns when the supply-demand dynamics have fundamentally changed?

What am I missing?