A common view here is that we are now in a bull market. This is stated frequently in the Daily General Discussion post, for instance.

Coinbase defines bull and bear markets as follows: “Markets experiencing sustained and/or substantial growth are called bull markets. Markets experiencing sustained and/or substantial declines are called bear markets”.

To put it in simple terms, a bull market is a rising market, while a bear market is a declining one. For a bull market to be called, we need substantial upward swings over a long period of time. Let's evaluate both.

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Substantial upward swings? Maybe, but probably not

One could argue that we had a substantial upward swing. This is the key argument of the bull market callers, as they state that Bitcoin rallied a little over 50% from the lows.

Yet this swing is still rather 'mediocre'. Bitcoin is 65% down from all time high and currently under the 200-week moving average. From a historical perspective, that is still deep within bear territory. Moreover, it was really one big move, and not multiple upward swings, although that is arguable.

Longer period of time? Nope, not yet!

But to say that we have had substantial upward swings over a longer period of time would be overstating the current rise of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is only working on its second green month in a row. Bitcoin would need a lot of follow through over a longer period to officially be in a bull market.

Remember, during a typical bear market, 50%+ pumps are very common. Take the fall from December 2017 to the low December 2018 as an example. We saw five pumps of 40% or more. The three largest were in order of time: 54%, 100%, and 55%.

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The 2017-2018 bear market, with 5 retracements of 40% or more

And those pumps were all made before we finally reached the bear market bottom. During the current bear market, this is only our first 50%+ pump as 2022 has been particularly brutal. This is why bull/bear charts look like this:

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Bull markets (green) and bear markets (red)

The red parts often include 50% rallies.

To conclude

We have had a bullish impulse, but we would need to see lots of follow through over a longer period of time to be in a bull market. This period MIGHT be the start of a new bull market and eventually be counted as part of the bull, but it could also be a mere rally in a bear market that lasts longer. Time will tell.

Or in other words, the current status is:

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https://preview.redd.it/kg29np7t3rja1.png?1279&format=png&auto=webp&s=311fa7e99e616fe59a8c1d8eaf81b8414f360f46