Maybe Bitcoin doesn't really lead altcoins

Hey r/cryptocurrency, I stumbled upon an intriguing article on Substack (link: https://quanthedge.substack.com/p/when-bitcoin-zigs-and-altcoins-zag), and it’s sparked some fascinating questions about the current state of the crypto market.

The post challenges the conventional wisdom that Bitcoin always leads altcoins in market cycles. Instead, it argues that altcoins may have historically led Bitcoin in the early stages of bull markets, with data suggesting that altcoins were more bullish than Bitcoin during the 2015-2017 cycle. This contradicts the popular narrative that Bitcoin’s dominance is the primary driver of crypto cycles.

The author also dives into the current market dynamics, questioning whether we’re still in a bull market. Bitcoin’s recent underperformance, despite a pro-crypto administration and rumors of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, has left many scratching their heads. The article explores potential reasons, including Bitcoin’s weakening correlation with tech stocks and the impact of external factors like DeepSeek’s advancements in AI.

One of the most compelling parts of the article is the analysis of crypto breadth indicators, such as the percentage of coins above their 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. The author backtests these indicators using a top 100 altcoin index, suggesting that they could help time market cycles and avoid significant drawdowns.

This raises some critical questions for the community:

• Are altcoins leading Bitcoin this cycle, or is Bitcoin still the primary driver?
• How do external factors like AI advancements and macroeconomic trends impact crypto markets?
• Can crypto breadth indicators really help us time market cycles, or is price action still the ultimate decider?

I’d love to hear your thoughts on this. Do you think altcoins are setting the tone for this cycle, or is Bitcoin still calling the shots? Would love to hear your thoughts

TL;DR: This article challenges the idea that Bitcoin always leads altcoins in market cycles, suggesting altcoins may have historically led in early bull markets. It also explores current market dynamics and the potential of crypto breadth indicators for timing cycles. What do you think—are altcoins leading this time around?