Ive been in BTC since 2017 and have been aggressively stacking since 2019. My average purchase price is around 10k. Ive bought as low at 400$ and as high as 38k with loans. I haven’t sold any. I’ve been through a couple halvings and can tell you that timing the market with BTC is possible with certain indicators.
With the direction BTC is going I see at minimum 200k at cycle top. This is my bearish but practical target. My bullish target being 530,000 by Nov 2025 with my target of re-entry being 50-60k spring of 2027. The goal is to multiply my BTC holdings since my allocation to BTC is 100%. It’s my personal opinion that everyone should be 100% if their goal is low risk high reward.
The market indicators that I’ll be using for timing are RSI above 90, high hashrate with low miner position index (MPI), Bitcoin google trend above 85 (current 34), New bitcoin wallet addresses above 900,000).
When I see these all take place, regardless of price I will exit 75% of my bitcoin position with 25% going towards a trading account, 25% towards a new house, and the reason why I am here is to figure out what to do with the remaining 50%.
The goal with this 50% is to remain very liquid over a 2 year period to buy back into bitcoin when the re-trace of 60-80% takes place. I’d like to make 10% a year on that 50% but that’s wishful thinking as I don’t see the S&P pulling over 5% the next 2 years.
What could some options be? Thanks.
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