If you guys were around 2015-2016, you might have already heard a lot of talks about halvings and their effects on the market. But back then it was still a new theory with not much history, and still a lot of doubters.

When 2017 played out right into that theory, some of those doubts faded.

But in 2019-2020, before the big 2021 bullrun, there were still some people who believed this time it would be different.

Because this time, we had too many people expecting it.

In 2016 there were still doubters. Whereas in 2020, too many people now knew about the halvings, and way too many people were expecting it to cause a big bullrun.

So they believed that it was already priced in for 2021, and we wouldn't see a big rally like we did in the past.

We all know how that theory played out.

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Priced in vs not priced in:

-Example of priced in:

If a Bitcoin ETF is approved, but the price has been rising for the last few months as the market was anticipating it to be approved, the price on the day of the approval might not move or might even go down a bit, as it was already priced in. People bought on the rumor, and made the price go up accordingly for the last few months.

-Example of not priced in:

People panicked out of Bitcoin for a year, due to a bear market, fear of Bitcoin tanking further, panic over FTX and Luna. Causing extreme fear and extreme oversold conditions.

Every extreme action has an opposite reaction.

People then reacting in the opposite direction as a response to the volatility, and buying back the oversold condition due to fears fading, and going into a bull market, isn't showing that the halving is priced in. It's just the usual Bitcoin volatility and market reactions.

When talking about "pricing in", it's typically on a piece of news or short term event, not pricing in an entire bull market.

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