once the lightning network gains critical mass it will become the strongest network effect we have ever seen.

I used to wonder when everyone will start accepting bitcoin, but now I realise they probably wont. Whats more likely is that the world starts seeing lightning as the one global payments protocol for sending and recieving payments. Lightning infrastructure companies all over the world will start helping existing financial apps and point of sale service providers to integrate with lightning so that any app whether that be cashapp paypal wise or your local payments app and banking apps will be able to send to lightning and recieve from lightning while every point of sale and ecommerce solution will be able to recieve to lightning invoices.

Once this happens every app in every country will be able to pay any other app in any other country including point of sale devices and ecommerce checkouts and for the first time in human history the worlds financial system will finally be interoperable and easy to use on a global scale.

Most people wont know what bitcoin or lightning is, all they will know is their app can now send to any other app and pay to any merchant on earth online or in person.

This seems like the logical progression. Maybe in 10 or 20 years everyone will hold their balances in sats too because of fiat currency depreciation but in the near term it is the lightning network that will proliferate around the world and become one of the worlds strongest network effects we have ever seen. Any app or bank or merchant that isnt plugged into lightning will be left behind.

The cherry on top is that as lightning gains its unstoppable network effects and proliferates around the world anyone with a simple lightning wallet holding some sats will be able to fully integrate into that system being able to send and recieve to any person and any merchant on earth. Thats the ultimate goal. Lightning is the trojan horse that will put bitcoin at the very center of the worlds new financial system.

So I have stopped asking the question when will merchants accept bitcoin and have started asking the question how long until the existing payments infrastructure plugs into lightning. Network effects are strong and network effects for payments are far stronger than any social network, afterall payments are far more important to people than facebook. So it is highly likely that by 2030 the entire worlds financial apps and point of sale solutions will all be integrated with the lightning network.

Critical mass for the lightning network may start once a handful of banks or point of sale service providers have integrated in 10 or 20 of the largest nations. At that point the network effect of payments will see lightning go mainstream extremely quickly. We have already seen xapo private bank integrate lightning and blackhawk POS service provider in the US integrate lightning. By 2025 we may have reached critical mass escape velocity and between 2025 and 2030 lightning will spread around the world until it is used by absolutely every financial app and point of sale terminal on earth.